China key data preview: what to expect in AUD/USD?

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 18, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/USD is lined up for today ahead of the Chinese data, yuan fix (USD/CNY) and stock market's outcome, all of which give us high potential for fireworks on the major commodity currency. We have retail sales and industrial production for December as well as GDP for Q4.

    First of all, the Yuan (USD/CNY) has been stabilizing of late while China ended an eight-day run of reductions on the 7th Jan after the offshore yuan's recent drop actually put China in breach of IMF regulations, sending panic across markets at the start of the year with escalated fears of a global currency war.

    Also at the start of this year, Chinese stocks played havoc across the markets to the extent that the authorities had to scrap the circuit breaker system to try and help to stabilize the market. However, there remains a sense of panic among the retail investor and a flight to safety in bearish sentiment has seen copper and related currencies plummet making China's data releases high risk events.

    AUD/USD started the year with a high of 0.7301 to trade as low as 0.6827. Today has the possibility of seeing a large move in the currency given the sensitivity it has to China's performance.

    China's data releases - watch industrial production

    For today, the main focus will be on industrial production and the GDP Q4 outcome released at 1pm Sydney/10 Beijing. China targetted 7% for 2015, but economists are predicting a miss. However, analysts at Westpac explained, "GDP hardly ever surprises; most previous releases have come in either exactly at or very close to expectations. Consensus is for another 6.9% y/y print. Industrial production will potentially be more market moving. In Nov we saw a bounce to 6.2% y/y though this is still just above lows back to 2008. The median forecast for Dec is 6.0%. External demand and heavy industry continue to drag."

    On GDP, however, should there be surprises, Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet explained, "Better-than-expected outcome can see the pair advancing up to the 0.7000 psychological figure, yet bad numbers should lead to a break below 0.6826, last week low. "

    AUD/USD levels to monitor

    Technically, AUD/USD is trading below the September low of 0.6905 which opened up the wide possibility of 0.6774 and 2004 lows as RSI on the weekly sticks still offer room for a direct continuation of the downside and today's events could well be the trigger point for such a move.

    On the other hand, as Valeria Bednarik mentioned above, the 0.7000 psychological handle is well in range, but the real test will be 0.7020 and November lows guarding the 20 dma on daily chart at 0.7096.
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