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China: March foreign reserves data preview – ING

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Apr 6, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    Tim Condon, Chief Economist at ING, suggests that based on stable CNY policy and ING’s house view that USD/Majors will range trade in 2016 they revised their yearend USDCNY forecast to 6.47 from 6.65.

    Key Quotes

    “March foreign reserves data is due tomorrow. The consensus forecast is $3.196 trillion, which would be a negligible $6.3 billion decline from February. We credit the PBOC’s USDCNY fixing policy, which Governor Zhou characterizes as enhanced reference to a basket of currencies, and the tightening of exchange controls/macropru for slowing reserve outflows from the unsustainable $100 billion per month pace of November- January. We think there are strong economic and political reasons for the PBOC to stay the course.

    Based on this and ING’s house view that USD/Majors will range trade in 2016 we revised our yearend USDCNY forecast to 6.47 from 6.65 (latest 6.48, Bloomberg median 6.70, forward 6.62).”
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