China: Mixed signals from business surveys as Yuan enters SDR basket - MUFG

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Dec 1, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Delhi) – Lee Hardman, Currency Analyst at MUFG, notes that the leading business surveys provided mix signals for the outlook for the economic growth in China heading into year end.

    Key Quotes

    “The official manufacturing PMI survey declined by 0.2 point to 49.6 in November, although the unofficial manufacturing PMI survey increased by 0.3 point to 48.6. Economic weakness remains most evident in the manufacturing sector while the service sector continues to gradually strengthen. The official non-manufacturing survey increased more notably by 0.5 point to 53.1 in December. Overall the surveys will at least help to ease some concerns that the Chinese economy is slowing more sharply in Q4.

    The IMF confirmed overnight as well that the renminbi will join their basket of SDR currencies from October 2016. PBoC Deputy Governor Yi has stated overnight that China will continue to reform and open up to consolidate its role in the SDR. He stated as well that the basic renminbi foreign exchange system will not change as the IMF is not demanding a further change in the forming mechanism. The long-term goal is to make few interventions.

    The IMF has decided to attach a weight of 10.92% to the renminbi in the SDR basket from October 2016. To accommodate the renminbi in the SDR basket it will result in the most notable decline in the euro’s share from 37.4% to 30.93%.

    The US dollar’s, pound’s and yen’s shares will decline more modestly by -0.17ppt, 3.21ppt and 1.07ppt respectively. It highlights simplistically that the rising role of the renminbi potentially has more negative implications for the euro, although of course lots of other factors need to be taken into account as well.”
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