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China stocks preview: What to expect today?

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 7, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Bali) - Following the chaotic scenes seen in Chinese stocks on Thursday, in which trading only lasted a net 14 minutes, with authorities having to suspend trading for the day after a 7% decline in the CS300 -'circuit breakers' triggered -, all attention will remain on how the equity market performs, in what is expected to be a very volatile day again.

    Circuit breakers a bad idea after all

    To understand what are the prospects for today, one needs to take a look back to the fluid developments seen in the last 24h, with the PBOC keeping the Yuan devaluation going - fixing beyond market expectations has caused panic and uncertainty -, while also bearing in mind that now the Chinese securities regulators have suspended, with immediate effect, the newly-installed circuit breakers (rule that pauses markets after a 5% fall, then re-opens only to close for the day if it hits -7%) in an attempt to let market trade more freely.

    China got it wrong

    As Patrick McGee from Fast FT notes: China markets never cease to fascinate: circuit breaker to suspend stocks and halt panic has itself been suspended to halt panic. Amazing..." Meanwhile, Nicholas Brady, a former U.S. Treasury secretary, and the 'inventor' of circuit breakers for the US stock market, was quoted via Bloomberg, noting “they’re just on the wrong track", adding that "they need a set of circuit breakers that appropriately reflects their market.” Brady also said that "the right thing to do is to widen their band."

    Fasten your seat-belt, volatility ahead...

    The first gauge on how much volatility players might be exposed to will depend on today's 1.15GMT Yuan fixing by the PBOC. If another significant devaluation occurs, the Shanghai open at 1.30GMT is likely to start on the backfoot again, especially assuming that the PBOC continues to provide no forward guidance whatsoever on what their intents are on the Yuan. If however, today's PBOC USD/CNY fix is within a reasonable range, selling in Shanghai might be slightly more contained, although the residual panic sell effects may remain after the meltdown seen yesterday, which may see retailers run to the exits.

    'Magic' state hand ready to step in?

    Chatter has it that after the removal of circuit breakers, if we were to experience anther sell-off, state-owned entities, while potentially letting selling occur, they will probably intervene - via selling of Treasuries to support stock buying -, trying to create a reversal day.
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