China trade balance, PBOC fix, Shanghai eyed - Westpac

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 12, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Bali) - Martina Song, FX Strategist at Westpac, summarizes the main developments in the FX arena during Tuesday, while providing a preview on what to expect for today, with the key event in Asia, other than the PBOC USDCNY fix and Shanghai performance, being China trade balance.

    Key Qyuotes

    AUD/USD chopped between 0.6940 and 0.7020 and is around 0.6980 in the Sydney morning. Spot iron ore was down another 0.3% to $41.19/tonne. Copper traded to a fresh low of $4350/tonne. NZD slipped from 0.6560 to 0.6515 then recovered to 0.6540. AUD/NZD rose from 1.0625 to 1.0720 then pulled back to a little below 1.07.

    EUR/USD traded 1.0900 to 1.0820 before returning to the middle of the range. USD/JPY oscillated between 117.25 and 118.10. Cable tumbled as Nov industrial production came in well below estimates. GBP/USD had been trading up around 1.4540 before sliding to as low as 1.4352, the lowest since 2010. Crude garnered attention as WTI dipped below $30/bbl for the first time since Dec 2003 to $29.93 before settling at $30.44. This saw USD/CAD again make fresh highs since 2003 touching 1.4315.

    The CNY-CNH spread narrowed considerably yesterday with the on- and offshore yuan trading at parity for the first time since Oct. Since the end of the extended CNY trading hours, CNH has been stable around 6.58. The overnight CNH HIBOR rate yesterday jumped to 66.8%, up from 13.4% which had been record highs made the previous day, putting additional pressure on USD/CNH. The past four USD/CNY fixes have been stable around the 6.5625/50 area though the previous day’s official close has ranged between 6.5575 and 6.5939. Yesterday’s CFETS close was 6.5750. This stability would suggest that another fix in the low- to mid-6.56s is reasonable.

    Equities across Europe rallied from recent lows though pared gains in the afternoon as the renewed slide in oil affected sentiment. The Euro Stoxx closed up 1.23% and FTSE 100 +1.0%. The S&P 500 fell into the negative in the middle of the session before recovering to 0.8%.

    US 10 year treasury yields were as high as 2.20% but then fell to 2.08%, the lowest since late Oct. Market pricing for the probability of a March Fed hike was little changed around 40% but we now have only 39bps total priced in by the Dec 2016 meeting. Both the US data releases, the NFIB small business sentiment and JOLTS job openings supported the strong payrolls number.

    China Dec trade balance will be released at 1pm Syd/10am Beijing. Consensus forecast is for the surplus to fall slightly as exports weaken further to -4.1%y/y in CNY terms (-8.0%y/y in USD). Imports however are also seen to fall further in the negative to -7.9% (-11.0%). Given that events out of China have driven market sentiment since the beginning of the calendar year, this number will be closely watched. Previously, the data in CNY terms has been released well before the USD numbers.

    We hear from Boston Fed president Rosengren for the first time since the FOMC meeting. Rosengren votes this year, and has sounded more centrist recently rather than dovish. Chicago Fed’s Evans (dove, voter in 2015) speaks again. The Fed’s Beige Book of regional anecdotes will be released and provides an update on conditions across the districts.
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