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China trade balance - what to expect in AUD/USD?

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Apr 13, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    AUD/USD has been better bid as risk appetite improves this week, rallying from 0.7490 at the end of last week to current highs of 0.7694.

    This is all in the absence of anything concrete from the Australian economy while we await jobs data this week. However, we have the Chinese trade balance coming up as a potential mover today.

    Chinese trade balance expectations

    As analysts at Westpac noted, China March trade data is out any time from 10am local/12pm Syd (last month was about 10:30am local) and we have tended to see the numbers released in CNY well before USD. "Forecasters see a -10.1% fall in imports, and +10.0% in exports (in USD terms), bringing the trade surplus to $35bn or CNY204bn. There is always plenty of interest in the details, such as iron ore import volumes."

    AUD/USD levels to monitor

    To the upside, spot needs to break 0.7680 again for a pop at the recent 0.7720/50 highs while a break below 0.7580 would open the doors to 0.7500 for 0.7477, recent last low ahead of 0.7416 (16th March low). Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet explained that in the 4 hours chart, however, the upside potential is stronger, as the technical indicators have resumed their advances after a limited downward correction, whilst the price stands now well above its 20 SMA, which slowly turns north around 0.7580.
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