China trade data - what to expect in AUD/USD

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Dec 8, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/USD has been sliding on the back of week commodities and demand for the greenback ahead of the FOMC that is expected to deliver an outcome where the Fed finally hike interest rates. We slid off the 0.73 handle below the 200 SMA at 0.7273 until some stability finally struck a chord for the bulls. We now head over to China for the next catalyst in the trade data for November Y/Y.

    China's trade balance

    Inflation and a commodity price cash has been dominating China's 2015 trade flows and we have seen some big upsets of contractions in exports and imports in the economy which left the year to date declines at 2.1% for exports and 15.5% for imports most likely due to prices rather than volumes on the last data.

    The Chinese economy recorded its highest trade surplus on record in September while imports were very alarming and highlighted that the world's second-largest economy struggles to boost domestic demand weighing heavily on a deteriorating economy. The Chinese trade balance offered a surplus of $61.64bn for October vs expectations of +$62.0bn while prior was $60.34bn. Exports were -6.9% y/y vs expected -3.2% (prior was -3.7%) while Imports were -18.8% y/y vs expected -15.2% (prior was -20.4%). Today, for the month of Nov Y/Y expected at -12.6% as an improvement and Exports -5.0% for Nov.

    China Nov trade balance is due at 1pm Sydney -10am local, though the data in local currency could be released well before the USD numbers as it has started to happen so in recent months.

    AUD/USD key levels to monitor

    Technically, AUD/USD lost the 0.73 handle and was marking lows of 0.7255 (S2) recently and moving further below supportive territory threatening a break to the downside for a test of S3 at 0.7219 as key levels.

    Below the 0.7200 psychological support is Classic S3 stands at 0.7176 where the 4hr 200 SMA gathers at 0.7180 having crossed below the 4hr 100 SMA at 0.7221. 0.7180 is the point at which the price rallied in late November trade to recent highs and should be a strong level of support. On a reversal, resistance come as 0.7300, 0.7350/80 3rd Dec highs.
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