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China trade/Japan GDP preview - what to expect in AUD/JPY

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Feb 14, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    The week ahead is full of risk events and it is a key occasion with China returning. While China has been the focus point and has been blamed for the heightened concerns over the Global economy, wrongly or rightly so, there were certainly no let-ups in volatility while they have been absent. Today's apple cart could be rocked on both China and Japan's key data releases with heightened attention from investors.

    Recent focus was Yellen

    Last week, the US dollar was under pressure on the back of the bets taken off the table that the Fed are in a position to continue hiking rates as frequently as Yellen had been alluding to in past rhetoric throughout 2015.

    Yellen has testified to congress over two days last week with the second day the most revealing and dovish. Markets have been volatile with the mention that negative deposit rates will not be taken off the table, should such a measure be required. However, over all, she remained cautiously optimistic that inflation targets will be met in the medium term and that maximum jobs capacity will be achieved, being the platform for a continuation of gradual rate incremental increases.

    Japan Q4 2015 GDP expected to fall negative

    For the week ahead, we start today with Japan being online with Q4 GDP. "GDP growth is likely to fall into a negative territory in Q4 2015, primarily due to sampling errors on consumption data.," explained analysts at Noumra.

    Given the recent move from the BoJ and in the Yen, this data will attract more attention than usual and has the potential of being a market mover as Asian investors return from the Lunar New Year.

    "There's heightened activity behind the scenes of the Japanese Government's MOF and the BOJ, and any further amount of financial volatility as JPY approaches 110 could lead the BOJ to intervene explicitly in the FX market," explained analysts at TD Securities.

    Return of the dragon and trade balance expectations

    In China returning, they come straight out with the trade balance for January's business. The January 2015 trade report ($60.9b) was exceptionally weak so a number that is just less weak in the month of January 2016 could be a positive. This data will arrive ahead of the RBA minutes, so a quick trade in AUD/USD maybe all that we will see before a consolidation ahead of tomorrow's main event in Australian and Asia for that matter.

    There after, we will be turning heads towards January employment report and this will be under greater scrutiny as usual as the RBA continues to pin all hopes on this data in the face of Global negative headwinds.

    What to expect in the Yen crosses and AUD?

    With AUD/JPY being a barometric for risk, AUD/JPY has the potential of being hit hard on one side or the other depending on the outcomes of the data, but all depending on the markets risk apatite as we head into week seven of 2016 in highly uncertain and volatile times.

    AUD/JPY levels to monitor

    AUD/JPY has been pressured hard below the 100 4hr sma and remains with a negative bias since losing the 82 and 81 handles in recent sessions. The trade is a continuation of the sell-off from the 100 dma at 85.85 and start of February business. We are, however, kicking off the week above the pivot of 79.47 that is first key target ahead of 77.76 2016 lows and lowest levels since middle of 2012 business. S1 is located at 77.10 and S2 at 76.91. On a correction, price targets R2 at 80.61 and R3 80.81. The 20 dma is at 82.60.

    AUD/USD levels

    Valeria Bednarik
    , chief analyst at FXStreet explained, "The AUD/USD pair daily chart shows that the price managed to hold above a bullish 20 SMA, currently around 0.7060 and the immediate support, although the technical indicators have turned south within positive territory, limiting the upward potential. In the 4 hours chart, the pair presents a neutral stance, with the technical indicators stuck around their mid-lines, and the price moving back and forth around horizontal moving averages."

    USD/JPY levels

    Simply, while risk remains fragile and upside in the Yen can be expected to continue playing out below 116.00. Key target is a break of 112,00 for the psychological 110.00 level. Daily RSI stands at 31 with downside room to go yet, with hourly RSI neutral as the pair trades with a bearish bias technically and fundamentally.
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