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China: Weak start for trade in 2016 – Nomura

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Feb 16, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    Research Team at Nomura, notes that China’s disappointing January trade data point to weakening growth momentum as investment demand weakened and capital outflows continued in January.

    Key Quotes

    “Export growth in USD terms slowed significantly to -11.2% y-o-y in January from -1.4% in December, which was much worse than expected (Consensus: -1.8%; Nomura: -2.5%; Figure 1). Exports growth moderated across the board (to both developed and emerging markets). The weak performance of China’s exports was consistent with a deeper export contraction in Korea.

    Moreover, imports for assembly and processing (i.e., those to be exported again after assembly and processing in China), remained weak at -19.4% y-o-y in January, which obviously does not bode well for exports.

    Overall, sluggish exports pose downside risks for production and add further to the evidence of weakening growth momentum from falling leading indicators (the official PMI and the MNI business sentiment index).”
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