China's data dump - what to expect in AUD/USD

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Nov 11, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/USD has been building a case for the upside in a minor recovery and is attacking the 20 SMA on the hourly chart and pressures the 55 SMA on the same time frames which might be a tough area of resistance ahead of the data dump today from China.

    AUD/USD consolidation of the Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls sell-off weakened and offers tested yet further downside below the closing levels yesterday as Europe took over and metal prices took another nosedive. However, with a market already very long dollars and short Aussie, a test of the 0.7020 support was short-lived in the US shift and the price has managed to recover back to the mid-point of the handle on decent consumer confidence in Australia as we head into the key Chinese events later today.

    Industrial Production expected higher

    Industrial Production in China is reported by the National Bureau of Statistics of China. Industrial production measures the output of businesses activity in the key industrial sector of the economy. Manufacturing, mining, and utilities are core components to the Chinese economy that have slowed and which are causing a concern in global financial markets.

    Industrial Production in China averaged 12.79 percent from 1990 until 2015, reaching an all time high of 29.40 percent in August of 1994 and a record low of -21.10 percent in January of 1990. In the first nine months of 2015, the total value added of the industrial enterprises above designated size was up by 6.2% YoY. However, the September data y/y slipped below expectations down to 5.7% and signifies lower capacity utilization in the industrial sector due to weak demand from local and foreign consumers.

    While industrial production in China is expected a little higher year on year today for the month of October, at 5.8%, some analysts are predicting a hard landing for China overall and such headwinds have been cautioned by the RBA and continue to weigh on the Aussie. A number below expectations will not go down well, against a backdrop of the trade balance miss/surplus and yesterday's lagging inflation data.

    At the same time, we will have retail sales year on year expected at 10.9% and inline with previous. While China is considered mostly for its international trade, it requires a domestic boost and these details will be keenly monitored also. Retail Sales YoY in China is reported by the National Bureau of Statistics of China. Retail Sales YoY in China averaged 13.71 percent from 2010 until 2015, reaching an all time high of 19.90 percent in January of 2011 and a record low of 10 percent in April of 2015.

    AUD/USD key levels to monitor

    While AUD/USD trades below the base of the 2-month channel at 0.7097 the downside is favoured in the near term and a break to the upside of this level would target space back towards 6th Nov highs at 0.7169.

    However, on the wide, pressures will remain prominent below the 0.7298/0.7385 Fibo retracement and within the 2014-2015 downtrend. Thus, on the flip-side, a break of the 0.7000 support level opens the September 9th low of circa 0.6940 targeting 0.6905 that guards territory to the 0.6774 2004 low.
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