Chinese CPI/PPI preview - what to expect in AUD/USD?

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Nov 10, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/USD has been in a consolidated phase at the start of the week and oscillating around the midpoint of the 0.70 handle in the aftermath of the Nonfarm Payrolls data while markets look for the next catalyst. Today we continue with Chinese data releases for the week with CPI and PPI.

    China has recently reported a record trade balance surplus with both exports and imports missing expectations and offered more evidence that the economy is slowing. Despite the recent rate cut from the PBoC, China could be headed for a hard landing at this rate and today's October CPI's might be expected to tick lower overall as further evidence that the economy is slowing.

    October CPI's expected at 1.5% y/y

    While foreign demand is waning and China looks inwards to try and spur economic growth, China's CPI rose 2.0 percent in August y/y, but then dropped down to 1.6 percent in September, as reported last month, when compared to a year ago and missed the expectations of a change of 1.8 percent. These cooling inflation measures are further indicating that the Chinese economy is slowing down and today the market loos for 1.5% inflation y/y.

    A miss is today's CPI's could be considered as another factor in respect to further easing from the PBoC to stimulate the economy. However, markets might be more concerned over industrial production tomorrow in respect to China's economic performance and subsequent easing to help soften the landing of the struggling Chinese economy.

    AUD/USD managed to hold on to the 0.70 handle yesterday after the trade balance data and thus it might be expected to remain firm on anything inline with, or close to, the market's expectations. Moreover, until there are further signs that the Chinese economy slows more sharply or until, say, the CNY weakens dramatically, AUD/USD might be more inclined to move on domestic or US events. However, the Aussie will remain vulnerable to softer commodity prices, which indeed the Chinese economy will continue to influence.

    AUD/USD key monitors

    AUD/USD remains in a phase of consolidation at the start of this week with RSI (14) turning towards neutral post Nonfarm Payrolls and the heavy sell-off of last week's close. AUD/USD now trades below the base of the 2 month channel base at 0.7097 in an extension of the 0.7298/0.7385 Fibo retracement, 2014-2015 downtrend. The key area of support for the bears to target sits with the 0.7000 level. This level is guarding the September 9th low of circa 0.6940 targeting 0.6905 that guards territory to the 0.6774 2004 low.
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