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Chinese CPI/PPI preview - what to expect in AUD/USD?

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Dec 9, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Mumbai) - AUD/USD has been under pressure over the past few trading sessions, with the recent decline mainly attributed to the sliding commodities’ prices, especially oil. Oil prices fell to the lowest levels since early 2009 on Tuesday as markets continue to weigh Friday’s OPEC decision of refraining from production cut. Adding to further downside, China reported weak trade data, with the Chinese exports falling 6.8% y/y in Nov and imports sliding 8.7%, leaving the trade surplus to $54.10 billion against October's record high of $61.64 billion. At the moment, the Aussie extends the recovery from below 50-DMA and regains 0.72 barrier, consolidating previous heavy losses before another set of key macro releases from China – CPI and PPI reports.

    China is battling with weak consumption as reflected by lower price pressures, while the economy moves towards a consumer led growth model. The Chinese authorities rolled out a number of stimulus measures in recent times to stimulate growth in the dwindling economy. The latest one being, injecting 10 bln Yuan through 7 day reverse repos while China’s central bank has already slashed interest rates six times this year apart from multiple releases of bank reserves.

    Nov CPI to tick higher to 1.4% y/y

    The Chinese November CPI and PPI data will be reported at 01.30GMT, with the consensus forecasts for CPI seen higher at 1.4% versus 1.3% reported in Oct. While the factory gate prices are expected to fall further to -6.0% compared to -5.9% seen previously.

    Should the CPI miss expectations, we could see a sharp sell-off across the financial markets as the poor data would reinforce China slowdown fears and spur a renewed bout of risk-aversion. The demand for higher yielding currencies, especially the Aussie will be hit badly on concerns over the Chinese external demand prospects. China is Australia’s top export destination.

    Meanwhile, analysts at ING believe, “The 2H14 energy price crash is associated with a step down in inflation; CPI inflation to 1.4% YoY YTD in October from 2.0% in 2014 and PPI inflation to -5.2% from -1.9%. The step downs will retrace when the commodity price crash moves to the base of comparison, which on ING’s forecast would be in early 2016. We do not see inflation becoming a policy issue in the near-term. Our CPI inflation forecast for 2016 is 1.5% (Bloomberg consensus 1.9%).”

    AUD/USD key levels to watch on data

    Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet notes, “The 1 hour chart shows that the pair has met selling interest on an approach to a strongly bearish 20 SMA, while the technical indicators are turning back lower after correcting oversold readings, maintaining the risk towards the downside. In the 4 hours chart, the bearish momentum is even clearer, given that the technical indicators head sharply lower below their mid-lines, whilst the 20 SMA turns lower far above the current price. Support levels: 0.7170 0.7140 0.7110 Resistance levels: 0.7240 0.7290 0.7335.”
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