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Chinese CPI/PPI preview - what to expect in AUD/USD?

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Apr 11, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    AUD/USD has been in a wide phase of consolidation of the bullish recovery this year so far of the 2015 downtrend.

    0.7700 has proven to an area too far, however, but the bulls are battling on in a volatile commodities climate and support has been established at the 0.75 level. For today, we have the next set of key Chinese data coming out today, kicking of what could be the start to a key and busy week ahead.

    CPI expectations

    The Chinese CPI for March will be released at 11:30am Syd/9:30am local. Analysts at Westpac are expecting for this number to tick up to 2.4% y/y though explained that growth remains the focus of monetary policy. At the same time, PPI is expected to continue to reflect low commodity prices. While inflation is not usually a big mover as markets focus on the nations manufacturing and trade balances in a climate where there is big focus on the commodities sector.

    PBoC and the 3% 2016 CPI annual target


    Markets pay attention to the CPI data as this is watched closely by the PBoC because should the annual CPI reading more too far below or beyond the Chinese government's target levels, the PBoC could act at the next rate decision, and that would create a major impact on markets. So, the official CPI target for 2016 is set at 3%, so the expectations are going to be at the low end of the potential band's higher end for the year. Either way, AUD/USD could be a mover around the data and at the same time there is home loans data.

    AUD/USD levels to monitor

    The current price action is signalling the potential for a correction lower taking hold near term. A series of downside fundamentals would help the bearish technical case, and a break of 0.7500 opens 0.7477, recent last week's low ahead of 0.7416 (16th March low). The October and November highs are an area of interest beyond that located at 0.7384/81. To the upside, the 20 dma is located at 0.7576 and a break there brings us to the 0.7600 handle with congestion at R3 0.7643 before 0.7680 and the recent challenge of 0.7720/50.
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