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Chinese data dump - what to expect in AUD/USD?

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Apr 15, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    AUD/USD made fresh highs for 2016 in the US session as risk appetite of late has underpinned a recovery in commodities and the Australian dollar while the unemployment rate in Australia continues to fall.

    US CPI rebounds, but at a slower pace in March

    China has started to show signs of stabization, which is sparking a recovery in oil and related markets, underpinning the upside AUD/USD as well while the hawkishness from Fed officials this week offered a short-lived revival of the notion that we will see a hike from the Fed as soon as the next meeting around given today's miss in CPI and the outlook for PCE turning less positive. Meanwhile, we will turn heads to the Chinese data to end the week in Asia ahead of the final U.S. catlyst before the week's close.

    Australian March jobs report beats estimates

    Chinese data releases

    China’s Q1 GDP will be release at 12pm Syd/10am local. Analysts at Westpac are expecting another 6.8% y/y print, unchanged from Q4, while consensus is 6.7% y/y.

    Analysts at ANZ are picking 6.5% y/y instead

    "From a soft start, activity looks to have progressively strengthened over the quarter with March activity data likely to show a ‘soft landing’ of sorts. Services sector activity is expected to strengthen in Q1, whilst climbing infrastructure investment should help slow the moderation in fixed asset investment growth. Whilst a surging property market and more policy support have been key catalysts in holding the economy up, the irony is that firming signs on inflation could limit the amount of policy support going forward. Indeed, we expect just one further RRR cut this year. This could be problematic if growth is dependent on further stimulus rather than an improved fundamental backdrop."

    At the same time as the GDP data, March readings on industrial production are released as well as retail sales and investment. The median forecast for IP is 5.9% year on year and that is a rise from 5.4% in Jan-Feb which matched 2008 lows.

    AUD/USD levels to monitor

    AUD/USD's support in the immediate term stands at 0.7680/90 within the ascending and steep channel from the 1st March rally. The level of target to the upside on positive data will look to take on the resistance ahead through 2016 highs of 0.7736 comes as 0.7725/50.

    A break there brings in 0.7859 12th June 2015 highs and 0.7948 100 week ma there after. On a break to the downside, targets 0.7630/60 recent lows and 0.7620, yesterday's low. The 50 4hr sma is located at 0.7600 guarding space to 0.7520 and 0.7477 end of 24th March lows and 0.7416 16th March low ahead of the October and November highs at 0.7384/81.
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