Chinese data preview - what to expect in AUD/USD?

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Feb 1, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/USD has been a mixed play of recent sessions within a technical reversal of the 2016 downtrend from a high of 0.7301 to a low of 0.6827. This week is a big week for markets in general and especially for the Aussie with not just the RBA and US jobs data, but we also kick off today with key Chinese services and manufacturing data.

    The break of the 20 dma at 0.6992 was compelling and bulls marched onto the 50 and 100 dma converging around the mid-point of the 0.71 handle boosted by surprising performances in the Australian economy and recoveries within the ebb and flow in the price of oil as well as China showing signs of short-term stabilization, notably in the price of the yuan.

    China's services and manufacturing data

    Today, we will get the official Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) of manufacturing activity, which tracks activity in the factories and workshops sector. The sector has been in contraction since March 2015, with the Caixan registering 49.6 then and September contracting at the fastest pace since 2009.

    It wasn't until October where PMI was starting to recover to 48.3 vs 47.2 in September and again to 48.6 in November before another setback in December when 48.2 arrived. The prior mild improvements has followed a string of stimulus measures from Beijing, including six interest rate cuts in the year up to November including reductions in the amount of cash banks must keep in reserve, both that had been intended to boost lending.

    However, the stock market rout at the start of 2016 in China and volatility in the Yuan has required even further calls to action from Chinese authorities and the full extent of the market turmoil might only start to come to print now. For January, markets are expecting 48.0 on the Caixan and 49.6 NBS. A keynote is that services, non-manufactring, had been growing and was offering confirmation that the country's transition to a consumption-driven economy. Prior was 54.4.

    The official China non-manufacturing and NBS manufacturing PMI's will be released at 12pm Syd/9am local and Caixin/Markit PMI survey PMI survey at 12:45pm Syd/9:45am local. "Construction, heavy industry and external demand all continue to weigh on the manufacturing sector," explained analysts at Westpac.

    AUD/USD key levels to monitor

    Technically, Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet explained, "For this Monday, the pair retains a positive tone, as in the 4 hours chart, the technical indicators have retreated from overbought readings, but held above their mid-lines and are now turning higher, in line with some further gains, particularly on a recovery above, 0.7100."

    Meanwhile, the price is now trading below the 4hr 200 sma at 0.7089 and the pivot at 0.7094 as we get going in Asia while the key downside target is the 20 dma at 0.6992 with S3 at 0.6960. Daily RSI (14) is in neutral at 57.48.
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