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Chinese economic slowdown confirmed from latest GDP numbers – MUFG

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 19, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

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    FXStreet (Delhi) – Lee Hardman, Currency Analyst at MUFG, notes that there has been a tentative improvement in global investor risk sentiment overnight supported by the rebound in the Chinese equity market which has increased by around 3.0%.

    Key Quotes

    “Asian currencies have strengthened modestly while the renminbi has continued to remain more stable trading at around the 6.6000-level against the US dollar. The main development overnight was the release of the latest GDP report from China for Q4. The report revealed that the economic growth in China continued to slow gradually expanding by an annual rate of 6.8% in Q4. For the calendar year as whole the Chinese economy expanded by 6.9% in 2015 which was the weakest year of growth since 1990.

    It was broadly in line with the government’s growth target for last year of around 7.0% although doubts will remain over the accuracy of the official figures which could be glossing over a sharper economic slowdown. The slowdown was driven by the services sector in Q3 whose annual rate of growth declined to 8.1% from 8.6% in Q3. For the calendar year as a whole the service sector expanded by 8.3% in 2015.

    Continued weakness in the primary and secondary industry sectors of the economy is resulting in the economy rebalancing towards the service sector which accounted for 50.5% of GDP in 2015. There are some tentative signs that industrial production growth may have stabilized. The annual rate of industrial production growth expanded by 5.9% in December, which is in line with the average rate during the second half of last year. Fixed asset investment remains weak expanding by an annual rate of 8.2% in December and by 10% for the calendar year as whole down from 15.7% in 2014. Investment in real estate continues to contract.

    Overall, the report is unlikely to materially ease heightened concerns over the risk sharper economic slowdown in China given doubts still over the accuracy of the data. National Bureau of Statistics Head Wang Baoan has attempted to provide reassurance that the GDP figures are credible starting that they are based on solid data and they utilise good tools to verify the statistics.

    The government is expected to announce an economic growth target of around 6.5% for this year. Our analysts in Hong Kong expect economic growth to be even weaker this year keeping the renminbi under downward pressure from continued capital outflows.”
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