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Crude oil likely to give back gains as DOHA talk fails - TDS

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Apr 18, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    Research Team at TDS, suggests that with the oil market not getting a production freeze in DOHA, it is likely that crude oil gives back most of the gains made in recent days.

    Key Quotes

    “WTI can retrace back to the lower bound of the trading range near $35/bbl and Brent to $37/bbl. Sentiment now has been damaged by renewed Saudi insistence that Iran join the freeze agreement, hence levels a few dollars below the recent lower bound are likely as specs strap on shorts/liquidate over-extended long exposure. Still, improving long term supply demand fundamentals such as a rather permanent oil production decline in US shale zones and in other non-conventional regions suggest that prices are unlikely to test the lows of earlier in the year.

    There is still hope of much higher price near $60/bbls late in the year as key producers restrain, reach capacity and the supply-demand moves toward balance amid deep non-conventional declines. OPEC may even keep the hopes of a freeze alive in June, as by then the Iranians who already hiked production quite aggressively will be near the top of capacity and the demand impact from Brexit, China/EM risks will be clearer.”
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