Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by Prisca, Apr 29, 2016.
In this thread I will be posting reviews about various Currencies and commodities
NZD/USD Technical levels For 29th April 2016
USD/CHF Technical levels
USD/JPY Technical Levels
USD/CAD Technical level
1.3219 Swing High
1.2990 Technical Resistance
1.2720 Weekly Pivot
1.2697 Intraday Resistance
1.2527 Intraday Support
EUR/JPY Technical levels for today
121.72 Local Low/Intraday Support
122.53 Intraday Resistance
123.37 Intraday Resistance
124.53 Weekly Pivot
EUR/JPY remains bias towards neutral zone, but this is just a preparation for things to come, we might see the pair racing into bullish mode very soon, it’s known for rapid movements and we may this this happening very soon.
EURGBP SELL AFTER THE NECKLINE BREAKOUT.
EURGBP sell setup is forming. The head and shoulders pattern on daily chart has already been broken. There is a bearish trend line from the most recent top. We can try to sell if the price moves higher near the trend line.
EURGBP TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
D1 – bearish trend line, head and shoulders
EURGBP SELL ENTRY:
Wait for the price to move near the bearish trend line and look to sell. Conservative entry would be with the break of the up trend line to be created.
Daily Technical Outlook & Trading EUR/USD
Consolidation b4 decline resumes
1.1243 -Mon's high
1.1227 - Y'day's high
1.1180 - Last Thur's low (now res)
1.1133 - Y'day's 2-month low
1.1070 - 50% r of 1.0523-1.1617
1.1058 - Mar 16 low
. EUR/USD - 1.1138.. Despite intra-day price swings in Asia on Tue, price met renewed selling at 1.1227 at European open on broad-based selling in euro n tumbled to 1.1169, then later to a 2-month low of 1.1133 in NY session.
. Looking at the bigger picture, euro's breach of last week's 1.1180 low to 1.1133 y'day confirms decline fm May's 8-month peak at 1.1617 to retrace the MT uptrend fm 2015 bottom at 1.0523 (Dec) has once again resumed, the breach of chart sup at 1.1144 bodes ill for the pair n further weakness twd 1.1070 is on the cards, this is a 'natural' 50% r of aforesaid rise fm 1.0523-1.1617. How- ever, as daily indicators' reading would reach oversold territory on such move, reckon 1.0941 (61.8% r) would remain intact this week. Our weekly strategy is holding a short position in anticipation of weakness twd 1.1070 n only a daily close abv 1.1180 signals temp. low is made, risks retracement twd 1.1243.
. Today, as current price is trading well below the 21-hr n 55-hr emas, suggesting downside bias remains for further weakness, however, reckon 1.1070 would hold on 1st testing. On the upside, only abv 1.1180 would dampen present bearish scenario n may risk stronger retracement to 1.1237/41 b4 retreat.
EUR/USD: recovering towards 1.1200.
The EUR/USD pair trades near a fresh weekly high set at 1.1185 ahead of the US opening, with the greenback generally lower across the board. Yen's demand, as risk aversion kicked in late Tuesday, was the first catalyst for the current dollar's slide, alongside with some poor economic figures. The idea that the US economic data is not offering enough background for a rate hike is gaining some ground, but there it has not been poor enough to deny it at the time being. The final revisions of May Manufacturing PMIs in the euro area came in mixed, with the EU reading steady at 51.5, while German figures were revised lower, to 52.1 from 52.4.
Ahead of US own manufacturing data, the short term picture for the EUR/USD pair is recovering towards the 1.1200 region, and in the 1 hour chart, the price has managed to advance above all of its moving averages that anyway lack clear directional strength, whilst the technical indicators are losing part of its upward strength near overbought readings, but far from suggesting a downward move. In the 4 hours chart, the price is advancing above a bearish 20 SMA whilst the technical indicators maintain tepid bullish slopes above their mid-lines, in line with the shorter term outlook.
Support levels: 1.1160 1.1120 1.1090
Resistance levels: 1.1200 1.1245 1.1280
Daily Recommendations on Major EUR/USD
EUR/USD - 1.1300
Although euro's anticipated decline from Thursday's fresh 1-month peak at 1.1416 (Asia) to as low as 1.1306 in New York and then intra-day weakness below said sup in Asia confirms early upmove from May's 1.1098 trough has indeed made a temporary top there.
With near term loss of downward momentum it would prevent steep fall and reckon 1.1270/80 would contain downside, bring subsequent rebound but several days of choppy consolidation is now envisaged.
On the downside, only a daily close below 1.1265/70 would shift risk to downside for a stronger retracement of indicated upmove towards 1.1220 (previous res, now sup).
The EUR/USD pair fell during the day on Tuesday, slicing through the 100 day exponential moving average. However, there is quite a bit of support and noise just below the 1.12 level, so it’s likely that we will see quite a bit of volatility. Ultimately, we get the FOMC Statement coming out today and that will more than likely be what drives his pair more than anything else. With this being the case, I believe that we will test the support below, but if it holds it could be an excellent buying opportunity.
EUR/USD recovers further, 1.1100 on sight
The shared currency is extending its rebound from daily lows in the 1.09 area vs. the greenback, pushing EUR/USD to the current 1.1065/70 band.
EUR/USD weaker on ‘Brexit’ vote
Spot has quickly plummeted to the 1.0900 neighbourhood after the EU-UK Referendum showed the ‘Leave’ option clinched a tight win with nearly 52% of the votes, catching markets off-guard after poll results on Thursday were pointing to a ‘Remain’ victory.
All eyes are now on the European markets, with German Bund yields tumbling to record lows and equity markets expected to trade deep in the red territory.
In the data space, the German IFO is due, although its results should be largely ignored against the current effervescent backdrop.
EUR/USD levels to watch
The pair is now losing 2.71% at 1.1075 and a break below 1.0913 (low Jun.24) would open the door to 1.0820 (low Mar.10) and finally 1.0709 (low Jan.5). On the flip side, the immediate hurdle lines up at 1.1259 (20-day sma) followed by 1.1296 (55-day sma) and then 1.1427 (high Jun.23).
50% Level at 1.1125 is Controlling the EUR/USD
The EUR/USD closed sharply lower last week, reaffirming the downtrend. The Forex pair also closed on the weak side of the major 50% level. This was further indication of a weakening market.
The main trend is down according to the weekly swing chart. The next target is a main bottom at 1.0821. A trade through 1.1426 will turn the main trend to up.
The main range is 1.1712 to 1.0539. Its 50% level or pivot is 1.1125. This is a major price level. Trader reaction to this pivot could should determine the longer-term trend of the Euro. So watch the price action and read the order flow all week at this price level. We could see a choppy, two-sided trade on both sides of this pivot until the bulls or the bears decide to take control.
Since last week’s close was below the pivot at 1.1125 and the long-term up trending angle at 1.1139, we are likely to start this week with an early downside bias.
A sustained move under 1.1125 will indicate the presence of sellers. Crossing to the weak side of the steep down trending angle at 1.0976 will indicate the selling is getting stronger.
The weekly chart begins to open up to the downside under 1.0976 with the next major targets an up trending angle at 1.0839 and the main bottom at 1.0821.
A sustained move over 1.1125 will signal the presence of buyers. However, overtaking the up trending angle at 1.1139 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could create enough upside momentum to trigger a strong rally into the nearest down trending angle at 1.1296.
Watch the price action and read the order flow at 1.1125 all week. This is the major price level controlling the direction of the Euro. Since it is a horizontal line, it is going to be important over the long-run as long as the Euro stays in the 1.1712 to 1.0539 range.
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