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Daily Technical Analysis

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by Apple ForexMart, Oct 4, 2016.

  1. Apple ForexMart

    Apple ForexMart Well-Known Member Trader

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    USD/CAD Technical Analysis: October 4 2016


    The current situation of the oil prices reinforced the entire commodity currencies inclusive of the Canadian dollar. Bearish investors attempted to regain their authority to manage the overall market.

    During the Asian session the pair exhibited a neutral position. Upon the outset of the European hours, it fell into the selling pressure.

    Sellers broke the 1.3100 level but did not stayed there for long. The price bounce off at the 1.3070 region. As seen in the 4-hour chart, the price is accelerating towards the 200-EMA by which the pair passed through the 100-EMA and attempted to reach the 50-EMA.

    Resistance arrived at the 1.3200 mark while reaching the 1.3100 identified as the support. MACD had demonstrated the same activity as yesterday's result and affirmed the seller's strength. RSI falls in the neutral position as well.

    USDCAD seems bullish and speculated to have an increase reaching the 1.3200 level.

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  2. Apple ForexMart

    Apple ForexMart Well-Known Member Trader

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    Technical Analysis for USD/JPY: October 4, 2016


    The USD/JPY pair surged to attain its two-week high of 102.27 points as a result of positive risk appetite after easing Deutsche Bank issues and OPEC oil statements increased the possibility of an interest rate hike in December.


    Meanwhile, the Japanese yen is still in the bottom rung of its trading range for the sixth straight session, its longest bottom-trend streak since March. The currency pair bottomed out at the 100.08 range last week after an increase in oil prices market risk-ons, as well as easing in Deutsche Bank concerns.


    Moreover, the Japanese yen is most likely to increase its selling power in the Asian session today after foreign QE talks by the Bank of Japan is seen to be gaining momentum. The currency pair is now dependent at the wider market sentiment. The market will now be focusing on the shares of banking firm Deutsche Bank, which has previously ended Monday’s trading session with marginal losses.


    If the USD/JPY pair manages to break above the 102.65 trading range, then this would expose the pair to the 102.78 range and go beyond an expected hurdle at 103.54 points. However, if the pair would go below its support levels of 102.00, then this could trigger a movement towards 101.57 points, which would then lead to lows at 101.00 points.


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  3. Apple ForexMart

    Apple ForexMart Well-Known Member Trader

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    Fundamental Analysis for USD/JPY: October 5, 2016


    The USD increased in relation to the Japanese yen during the last trading session, with the USD/JPY pair closing the session at 102.90 points after increasing by +1.24% or 1.265 points. The pair’s current value is its highest trading level since September 15, putting pressure on the currency pair to exceed its highest level last September 14 at 103.351 points.


    The increase in the USD was mostly due to a significant increase in US Treasury yields. The positive ISM Manufacturing PMI data released on Monday triggered an upsurge in Treasury yields, increasing the possibility of an interest rate hike this coming December. Comments from Fed officials also strengthened the US dollar, after Federal Reserve President Jeffrey Lacker stated that there is a high probability that interest rates would be increased and that inflation rates would be put under control by increasing borrowing costs.


    The CME Group’s FedWatch indicator also showed that traders are seeing a 63% chance that the Federal Reserve would increase its interest rates during its meeting on December 13-14, an 11% increase from the previous reading after the last Fed meeting on September. This was also cemented by comments from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland’s President Loretta Mester, who called for higher interest rates from the Fed. Fed officials, however, are keeping their respective profiles low as of the moment.

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  4. Apple ForexMart

    Apple ForexMart Well-Known Member Trader

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    The recent increase in value of the USD has caused certain currency pairs like the USD/CAD to move forward with their bullish runs, a move that has long since been anticipated for the currency pair during the past week. The USD/CAD pair was able to push through its resistance levels at 1.3140 points, even going beyond 1.3170 where it was met with marginal resistance and went with support levels after a gain of 1.3140 points.

    The Canadian and US trading sessions saw the USD increase its value by a significant margin and has caused the USD/CAD to go through the 1.3200 trading range, and market players are expecting that the pair will be able to reach its short-term targets at 1.3240 and 1.3280 with relative ease in just a few days. The currency pair is now at the support level of 1.3173 but is still expected to go above its present trading range.

    Market players are now awaiting the release of the Canadian trade balance data and the ADP Non-Farm Employment data from the US. These economic data should give traders an idea of the relative strength of the two economies, as well as the possible impact of lowered oil prices on both countries. This could then lead to an increased volatility towards the end of the next trading session.

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  5. Apple ForexMart

    Apple ForexMart Well-Known Member Trader

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    Fundamental Analysis for EUR/USD: October 5, 2016


    The EUR/USD pair had increased volatility levels and was able to break through the small-scale trading range and went through the larger-scale trading range of 1.1145 and 1.1245 points. The early part of the trading session saw the USD gaining strength after it lost a significant amount of its value last week. The euro was also able to break through its previous support levels of 1.1200 to gain new support levels of 1.1145 before going as low as 1.1137 points. The EUR/USD pair was also affected by the news that the ECB is currently studying the tapering of the QE.


    The EUR/USD went back at 1.1200 after the ECB rumors and went as far as 1.1238 before another headline was released, saying that this particular rumor with regards to the QE was not discussed in any of the ECB’s meetings, prompting the currency pair to go back down at 1.1200 points.


    This highly volatile movement of the currency pair is a positive sign for traders who are currently looking for market volatility. The market is currently not expecting any major news announcements from the EU, with the US ADP Non-Farm Employment data the only announcement expected from the US market. The ADP data will act as a precursor for the NFP announcement on Friday which is expected to provide a useful insight on the current state of the US economy.

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  6. Apple ForexMart

    Apple ForexMart Well-Known Member Trader

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    USD/CAD Technical Analysis: October 6, 2016


    The CAD increased its trading value following the release of the US crude oil inventories data this week, which portrayed a drop of 3 million barrels. The drop in the weekly data for stocks was unexpected since forecasts showed a significant increase after consecutive drops in the data. The CAD has been previously on the lower rung during the first few hours of the trading session after the data released showed a decrease in trade deficits from August’s $1.47 billion.

    Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada is not yet expected to cut back on its interest rates in spite of the ambiguities portrayed in the recent trade data. This is because the BoC is still awaiting the fiscal stimulus data from the Canadian government and will keep the CAD from further appreciation by using dovish stances. Non-resource exports were not able to increase and the direction of oil prices are still uncertain after the OPEC’s cuts in its production will still be subjected to another review in another meeting in Vienna.

    The USD/CAD pair decreased by up to 0.267 points during the last trading session. The currency pair is presently trading at 1.3166 points following an increase in oil prices. The CAD initially traded over the 1.32 price levels prior to the release of the crude stocks data but eventually plummeted to 1.3166.

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  7. Apple ForexMart

    Apple ForexMart Well-Known Member Trader

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    GBP/USD Technical Analysis: October 6, 2016 The GBP/USD pair is now trading within the 1.2370 range after the pair failed to take out in the 50-MA during the North American session and the Asian trading session. The two-year treasury yields increased by two points as a result of investors’ reaction to a heightened probability of an interest rate hike this coming December due to the positive data release of the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.

    The GBP/USD is generally on the downside since market players are generally worried about a possible “hard brexit”. Should the GBP/USD break above the 50-MA level of 1.2751 points, then this could increase the possibility of a break into the 1.2789 trading range, which would then cause the currency pair to target the 1.2836 level of the 100-MA. However, if the GBP/USD continues to decrease, then this could cause the pair to break below the support levels of 1.2685, which was the pair’s lowest reach during the last trading session, and can also lead to the 1.2590 range.

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  8. Apple ForexMart

    Apple ForexMart Well-Known Member Trader

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    USD/JPY Technical Analysis: October 6, 2016


    The USD/JPY pair is now trading at the 103.65 range after its value reverted back to the middle of the 103 range. The currency pair went back into the red zone in the middle of the Asian trading session but was still able to go well above the 103 trading handle. The USD/JPY closed down the recent session at 103.45 points, decreasing by -0.07%.

    The currency pair is now collecting its rallies into per-month highs after consecutive US fundamentals all turned out to be on the positive territory, increasing the possibility of an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve during the latter part of 2016. The release of the US non-farm payrolls data this coming Friday is seen as a determinant as to whether the Federal Reserve will be pushing through with its interest rate hike in December.

    The USD/JPY’s resistance levels are now at the 103.66 range. If the currency pair would be able to break through this particular range, then the pair could go within the 103.89 range and could possibly break through 104.14. However, if the pair further decreases its value, then it could hit immediate support levels at 103.00, 102.68 and even lower at the 102.25 range.

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  9. Apple ForexMart

    Apple ForexMart Well-Known Member Trader

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    AUD/USD Technical Analysis: October 6, 2016

    The Australian dollar has to find a way to match the signaled reversal of US dollar after the chart showed a Bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern. The near-term support is at 0.7597 with a 23.6% fibonacci extension. A break for a re-test of 0.7496 with an uptrend line of 38.2% level. After a reversal above the triple line of resistance at 0.7699, it reach a high at 0.7760 on August 11.

    The AUD/USD price is still uncertain with the Head and shoulders emerge forming a higher top setup. The trend is close to near-term support for traders looking for short term trade weighing the risk-reward ratio. To wait and go for the sidelines is a suggestive move until a more profitable opportunity comes.

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  10. Apple ForexMart

    Apple ForexMart Well-Known Member Trader

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    EUR/USD Technical Analysis: October 6, 2016

    The pair EUR/USD closed lower yesterday placing it with a consolidation risk. It quickly recovered within its range. The support level is at 1.1200 level to 1.1150 level and further to 1.1100 level with a break at 1.1050 level. The resistance is at 1.1300 level towards the 1.1350 level. A break at 1.1400 level leads to 1.1450 level. The pair remains within the range going to an upward direction.

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  11. Apple ForexMart

    Apple ForexMart Well-Known Member Trader

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    GBP/USD Technical Analysis: October 7, 2016

    The sterling pound continued to plummet during Thursday’s trading session, after the GBP/USD pair dropped to 1.2601, its lowest ever in 31 years. The currency pair also decreased by 400 pips or roughly 5% during the Asian trading session in just a matter of minutes. Prior to the Tokyo session, the GBP/USD pair traded with a 10-pip spread and the currency’s charts portraying lows at 1.2000 and below. However, there is no clear reason yet as to what caused the currency pair to suddenly backslide. Analysts are expecting that the currency pair would further drop in the coming sessions due to massive political and economic uncertainties, as well as deterioration of the UK economy.

    The GBP/USD was able to immediately revert back to the 1.2400 trading range. However, the technical indicators for the pair is presently erratic due to its recent activity. However, if the GBP/USD manages to maintain its risk levels below 1.2500 points then the currency pair would be able to recover even up to 1.2600. Market analysts are however warning traders that more sharp declines and sudden surges are to be expected in the upcoming trading sessions, particularly during this period that traders and investors are awaiting the release of the US Non-Farm Payrolls data in order to gauge the level by which they would resume their selling based on the stance of the pair.
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  12. Apple ForexMart

    Apple ForexMart Well-Known Member Trader

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    USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: October 7, 2016

    The USD/CAD pair continued to consolidate for the duration of today’s trading session although it initially attempted to break through resistance levels at 1.3250 points following a late onset of the US dollar’s strength but was immediately countered by a sudden wave of sellers, causing the pair to drop below 1.3200.

    Support levels for the pair came in at the 1.3180 trading range with resistance levels at 1.3250. These indicators are expected to maintain the USD/CAD’s price action for today’s session. The price action for the pair is largely dependent on economic data to be released today, such as the US non-farm payrolls data which is scheduled to be released today together with employment reports from Canada. The USD/CAD pair is then expected to have increased volatility compared with other currency pairs due to the release of these highly relevant data.

    Traders are advised to keep out of today’s session since the economic data from Canada and US are expected to come out at opposite terms, which can make it hard for traders to predict the pair’s future price actions. Traders are also reminded to avoid the high volatility levels of the currency pair and wait for the increased activity to die down before going to trading on the USD/CAD.

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  13. Apple ForexMart

    Apple ForexMart Well-Known Member Trader

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    USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: October 7, 2016

    The USD closed down today’s trading session with a higher value against the JPY for the eighth consecutive session after an increased interest rate differential which caused the surge in the US dollar. The USD/JPY pair was able to reach its highest trading level since September at 104.155 points. The pair then settled at 103.948 points, increasing by +0.42% or 0.439 points

    The US dollar continued its increase against the Japanese yen after a highly positive US jobs data further increased the possibility of an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve before the end of 2016. Another additional reinforcement was the release of the Unemployment Claims report which came in at 249,000, which is considerable lower than the expected 255,000 and last week’s release of 254,000. This lowered unemployment claims data might be a suggestion that the US economy might be nearing full employment, with employers wary of letting go of their present employees due to the lack of qualified people for the job.

    On the other hand, Japan’s economy rates are on negative territory, with benchmark yields for its 10-year treasury note increasing at 1.7146%. Japan’s 20-year treasury bonds also went up higher to place at 1.4623%.

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  14. Apple ForexMart

    Apple ForexMart Well-Known Member Trader

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    EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 7, 2016

    The pair showed slight volatility with defined ranges and did not move sparingly just a day ahead of the released of NFP. Euro is not that affected with Brexit but still weakened. For the whole day yesterday, it only reached the highest value at 1.3209 which is far from the strong resistance at 1.1250 level. Moreover, the announcement of the European Central bank that there will be no rate cuts did not help. Instead, the Euro further weakened that fell to 1.1150 support level during the US session. When the stop-loss for pound was operated it declined to 1.1132 level.

    The upcoming release of NFP would say a lot on price activity and not much on technical and fundamental actions. Hence, it is predicted that Euro would fall between the usual range of 1.1150 and 1.1250 levels and the lowest support to be at 1.1045 levels. Until the NFP has been published, it is best for traders to hold off in the current market and look out for the NFP data considering both technical and fundamental forecasts and not just the news.

    The NFP data would tell if there would be Fed price hikes soon. If it is high then there would be a price hike while it goes at low levels then it would await next year. This will be a good opportunity for stock markets and in the pair as USd would depreciate. Short term trade would still depend on the reports. Traders should not be impulsive with the volatility and be cautious of trading errors.

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  15. Apple ForexMart

    Apple ForexMart Well-Known Member Trader

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    GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 7, 2016

    The pair GBP/USD continues to consolidate this in the US session that steadied in the range 1.2600-30 and 1.2700 then abruptly fell in 800 pips. The reason is still questionable since it cannot be reasoned out easily with that number. Looking at the market activity, the traders are anxious to the immediate decline of pound this week.

    There is no major event but the affirmation from the French President that there road ahead will not be easy because of Brexit. Despite the progress it exhibited for weeks, people still not agreeable with it. The problem comes in with only few buyers, the number of bids would come to a halt when a big sized orders gets all brings it to a stop-loss as the sell order will be insufficient. In time, the price would keep going down and loses multiplies with excess of sell orders.

    Even though it managed to recover by 600 pips, there were still loses. Moreover,the expected release of NFP soon will make the market highly volatile. It is practical to be patient in trading and wait for the market to settle down or after the release of NFP data.[​IMG]
     
  16. Apple ForexMart

    Apple ForexMart Well-Known Member Trader

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    EUR/USD Technical Analysis: October 7, 2016

    Even though the outcome of the German Factory Orders is positive, the single euro currency had declined. According to the Bank Governor of Finland Erkki Liikanen, there is a need to consider an increase for bond buying as the source of strength for EU economy .

    The EUR had a high level of confidence during the first day of the week but had a sudden decline for this day. The price plummeted below 1.1200 toward the 1.150 region within the interim of the plenary session of Europe. EURUSD easily broke the moving averages and held down in the 4 hour chart. Moving averages established a neutral condition. The resistance alighted at the 1.1200 region while the support marked the 1.1150. MACD and RSI falls in the negative zone.

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  17. Apple ForexMart

    Apple ForexMart Well-Known Member Trader

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    USD/CAD Technical Analysis: October 7, 2016

    The greenbacks and loonies were able to make a larger gains on Thursday by taking advantage to the dollar's strength. The price recovery occurred subsequent to a short decline yesterday. There is an upsurge in value as the buyers were able to break the current low at 1.3160 near the resistance level but the purchase interest promptly dimmed. Upon the opening of the NY session, bullish investors recurred on the market seeing the pair continuously strive up to the region of 1.3200. The moving averages settled below the USDCAD and preserved a bullish outlook as it was shown in the 4-hour chart. The level 1.3200 is seized by the resistance, support earned the 1.3100 mark. MACD histogram generates a buy signal. RSI get up at the overbought territory.

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  18. Apple ForexMart

    Apple ForexMart Well-Known Member Trader

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    NZD/USD Technical Analysis: October 10, 2016

    The NZD/USD pair had unchanged rates during the last session at 0.7168 points with a possibility of daily lows at 0.7149 points. The NZD/USD is expected to slow down in spite of a diminishing trade activity surrounding the USD, and the negative impact of lowered oil prices to the NZD.

    The financial market in general has also moved towards the sidelines as different market players are now closely monitoring the second US presidential debate. The US market holiday is also expected to further cause stagnation in this particular currency pair.

    Investors are now awaiting a series of statements to be released by the Federal Reserve, as well as Chinese trading data and CPI data which are all due within this week. These data are all expected to have an impact on the NZD/USD pair.
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    The resistance levels for the NZD/USD is currently at 0.7207 at the 100-DMA, with a significant possibility of a gain extension at 0.7521 at the 20-DMA. From there, the pair could possibly extend its range at 0.7275 at the 50-DMA. On the other hand, the pair’s current support levels is located at its two-month low of 0.7110, with a possibility of lowering at 0.7084 and 0.7064 points.

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  19. Apple ForexMart

    Apple ForexMart Well-Known Member Trader

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    GBP/USD Technical Analysis: October 10, 2016

    The GBP/USD pair saw little activity during the last trading session and consolidated at 1.2430 points following last week’s sudden crash has caused markets to speculate whether the sterling pound has based here or otherwise.

    The GBP/USD decreased from 1.2614 points to lows at 14 cents lower while the GBP has incurred increased volatility after the hard Brexit announcement from UK Prime Minister Theresa May. However, the sterling pound’s value might become useful for the Bank of England.

    For the pair’s technical indicators, the GBP/USD’s resistance is at 1.2397, only a few points shy of its high of 1.3056, with considerations that the market will be directly offered below. Meanwhile, analysts are saying that the currency pair’s technical bearings have lost some of its accuracy due to the pound’s recent sharp decline, but the risk is projected to remain at the downside despite the negativity surrounding the sterling pound.

    The pair’s technical indicators maintained their bearish stance, with RSI indicators headed towards 19 points. On the other hand, selling interest levels are placed at 1.2500, with a possible recovery of the pair going up the 1.2620 trading range.

    The GBP/USD pair saw little activity during the last trading session and consolidated at 1.2430 points following last week’s sudden crash has caused markets to speculate whether the sterling pound has based here or otherwise.

    The GBP/USD decreased from 1.2614 points to lows at 14 cents lower while the GBP has incurred increased volatility after the hard Brexit announcement from UK Prime Minister Theresa May. However, the sterling pound’s value might become useful for the Bank of England.

    For the pair’s technical indicators, the GBP/USD’s resistance is at 1.2397, only a few points shy of its high of 1.3056, with considerations that the market will be directly offered below. Meanwhile, analysts are saying that the currency pair’s technical bearings have lost some of its accuracy due to the pound’s recent sharp decline, but the risk is projected to remain at the downside despite the negativity surrounding the sterling pound.

    The pair’s technical indicators maintained their bearish stance, with RSI indicators headed towards 19 points. On the other hand, selling interest levels are placed at 1.2500, with a possible recovery of the pair going up the 1.2620 trading range.

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  20. Apple ForexMart

    Apple ForexMart Well-Known Member Trader

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    AUD/USD Technical Analysis: October 10, 2016

    The U.S. labor market is on a low these past weeks which is favorable for the AUD/USD pair as it helps to its recovery from two-week lows. The price activity remains Bearish with a formidable support at 0.7550 after a 4 day decline. The Consolidation range is between 0.7550 and 0.7590.

    Its 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are moving in downtrend with 200 EMAs came to a halt after it tried to break higher. The MACD implies the seller's’ position to weaken as it continue to grow while its RSI is within the bounds of oversold area.

    Such trend continues and breaks at 0.7600 will further extend its recovery to 0.7650. The next target for the sellers stay at 0.7540 support level.

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