Disappointing capex data will likely lead to downward revision of Australia’s Q3 GDP

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Nov 26, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Mumbai) - The Australian Bureau of Statistics today reported the disastrous private capital expenditure (capex) figures for the July-September quarter. Capital expenditure has fallen three times more than expected in the three months to September. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, overall investment fell by 9.2 per cent to a dollar value of A$ 31.4 billion, marking the biggest quarterly drop in capex data since 1987. The figures dropped much more than the 2.9 per cent drop estimated by economists and far above the 4.4 per cent drop registered in the April-June quarter.

    Slowing mining investment hurt capex in Q3

    Slowdown in the mining investment boom has resulted in the fall of capex for four straight quarters. This has been the longest period for which capex fell since the recessionary years of 1990 to 1992. Mining expenditure fell by a seasonally adjusted 10.4 per cent in the September quarter, while planned expenditure in the mining industry dropped 34.1 per cent drop compared to the same period last year.

    Expenditure in the manufacturing sector on the other hand rose 6.9 per cent and other selected industries saw a 10 per cent drop, marking the economy’s gradual shift to the non-mining sector.

    Each capex report has an estimate of planned capital expenditure for the year ahead. The capex data released today was the fourth estimate for 2015/16. The fourth estimate came in at A$120.35bn slightly higher than the market forecasts for A$120bn. It however marks a 20.9 per cent drop from the fourth estimate for 2014/15.

    Impact on aussie dollar

    The Australian dollar tumbled post the release of the disastrous capex report. The Australian dollar slumped as much as 0.5 per cent this morning falling against the USD from US72.63c to US72.25c.

    The extremely disappointing capital expenditure data has given rise to the speculation that September quarter GDP due next week will be revised down. It once again raises the possibility of an interest rate cut.
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