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DXY longs into 98.0 still very appealing - Westpac

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 18, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Delhi) – Richard Franulovich, Research Analyst at Westpac, suggests that the USD faces event risk this week as the US calendar traverses housing, inflation and business sentiment.

    Key Quotes

    “Mild winter weather probably inflated both Dec housing starts (consensus +1.8%) and existing home sales (consensus +7.4%) while the high USD, soggy global growth and weakness in the energy sector will likely weigh on the Philly Fed and market business surveys. There is no Fedspeak scheduled as we enter the blackout period ahead of the Fed’s Jan 27 meeting.

    Bias: Fed March hike odds have understandably taken a hit (now down to a 37% probability) as US financial conditions tighten and the fall in the CNY and oil prices impart a disinflation jolt to the US. But US housing, the services sector and the labour market - the key to gauging US inflation and growth risks - remain relative bright spots and Fedspeak so far in early in 2016 gives no real hints that any Fed officials are turning weak kneed. Our US data surprise index is at depressed levels that suggest pessimism on the US economy may be getting ahead of itself too. DXY longs into 98.0 still very appealing.
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