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ECB and BoJ remain in the limelight – Danske Bank

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Feb 15, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    Chief Analyst at Danske Bank Arne Rasmussen sees both central banks under pressure in light of current developments in JPY and EUR.

    Key Quotes

    “Funding currencies for not least the EUR and the JPY have significantly appreciated over recent months despite both the ECB and Bank of Japan signalling more easing”.

    “The reason for this is found in the EUR’s and the JPY’s status as preferred funding currencies, which especially in 2014 contributed in sending the two currencies to far weaker levels than what long-term models would point to as ‘fair’.

    “When markets tumble, a reversal in EUR and JPY funded transactions, hedge-ratio adjustments and general stop-loss triggering result in appreciation pressures”.

    “The ECB and BoJ are therefore ‘fighting gravity’, which is also reflected in the recent IMM data: JPY positioning is close to the highest level since October 2012 while EUR bets are at the least bullish level since June 2014. Short term, we would be careful going against this trend”.
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