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ECB can hold with lower oil prices - TDS

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 15, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at TD Securities explained that Thursday’s ECB policy meeting is the major draw in an otherwise-quiet week for major Eurozone releases. Friday’s preliminary PMI readings will attract market attention.

    Key Quotes:

    "We do not expect any changes to policy at this week’s ECB meeting and we generally expect Draghi to extend the themes he advanced in December’s minutes. Lower oil prices present a risk to their inflation forecasts, but we think the Governing Council will be reluctant to deliver further easing unless the macro environment deteriorates markedly from here."

    "The EUR’s resilience has caught some market observers off balance in recent weeks, we suspect, with much of its support arising on the crosses. Indeed, only the JPY has outperformed among G10 currencies YTD.

    We expect the EUR to advance further against the GBP with the 0.7665/85 region as the next attractor on the topside. Against the USD, the near-term outlook is more muddled. While we ultimately look for a move down toward 1.0250, we suspect more sideways chop lies ahead. That said, 1.1050 should cap gains."
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