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ECB disappoints as Draghi falls short of expectations – TDS

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Dec 4, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Delhi) - Research Team at TDS, notes that the Draghi falls short with new measures as ECB is content to “Wait and See” strategy.

    Key Quotes

    • “The ECB today significantly disappointed market expectations, delivering the bare minimum of measures.
    • The deposit rate was cut only 10bps, QE extended six months to March 2017, and with no increase in the size of monthly purchases.
    • The ECB did announce that they will now reinvest principal purchases until further notice in order to keep the balance sheet high “for a long, long time” and will now include regional and local debt in the APP.
    • Draghi continued to use language that they are ready to use “all the instruments available” which means rate cuts in addition to other changes are possible, but he went to great lengths not to reinforce more to come on the rate front.
    • Moreover, the revisions to macro forecasts which saw GDP forecasts marginally flat to higher and CPI marginally lower, don’t suggest any particular pressing urgency to do more.
    • We close out our 5Y US-German divergence trade, enter early into our 10Y US-German compression trade, and are carefully monitoring the potential to close out our 5y EURUSD basis trade after the FOMC decision.”
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