ECB: Draghi signal towards aggressive action – BBH

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Nov 20, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at BBH, suggests that Draghi escalated his rhetoric regarding future ECB action and the market took Draghi's comments as a signal that the ECB take aggressive action when it meets on December 3.

    Key Quotes

    “The euro was sold back to yesterday's lows (~$1.0660) before a bid was found. Draghi said the ECB will "do what it must" to lift inflation as quick as possible. He pushed back against ideas that with the core rate at a two-year high (1.1%), there was no need for such urgency. The central banks in Germany, Slovenia, and Estonia have argued against the need for new action. Draghi is still pushing forward. It is predicated on the staff cutting its growth and inflation forecasts.”

    “In his tenure, Draghi has more often than not surprised the market with his dovishness. His comments today are important. Taken together, they suggest that Draghi is pushing the ECB toward broad based action. There are four moving parts: pace, duration, composition, and rates. What participants are contemplating now is not tweaking one or two of these, but all of them: Stepping up the pace of the purchases from the current 60 bln euros, to be extended beyond September 2016, including more agencies and possibly sub-sovereign instruments, and a cut in the deposit rate.”

    “Draghi's comment today that a lower deposit rate strengthens the transmission of the asset purchases is the strongest signal to date that this is on the table. Many people were looking for a 10 bp cut in the deposit rate, some 20 bp. However, with the German 2-year yield at record lows near -40 bp, to really get ahead of the curve, a larger cut would be needed. There is some speculation that the ECB may be considering a 50 bp cut. In this environment, it is difficult to envision a sustained euro bounce between now and early December.”
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