ECB Meeting Preview: What the 12 major banks are expecting?

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Dec 3, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Delhi) - The following are the expectations from today's ECB meeting as provided by the economists and researchers of 12 major banks along with some thoughts on the future course of action that ECB might take as provided by the strategists at these banks. Surprisingly, all 12 banks see deposit rate cut in the range of 10-30 bps in addition to some more easing measures.

    Goldman Sachs: We forecast ECB to cut deposit rate to -0.30%, but leave refinancing rate at 5bps & extend QE through end of Q3 2017.

    ING: We expect the ECB to cut the deposit rate by at least 15 BP, extend both in size (increase of monthly purchases by about €10 Bn), scope (broadening to regional debt) and duration (extending it at least to January 2017) its asset purchase program. A not yet anticipated refi rate cut to 0% might be the icing on the cake.

    BofAML: We expect ECB to extend QE to at least Sep 2017, alongside raising purchases to E70bln p/m and a deposit rate cut to -0.30%

    Rabobank: We believe that the ECB will opt for a combination of a deposit rate cut and an expansion of quantitative easing, cutting the deposit rate by 15bps and scaling up the pace of asset purchases by EUR 30bn per month, while potentially also broadening the types of assets that can be bought and perhaps shifting the end date of the purchase programme further into the future.

    Commerzbank: ECB is likely to cut its deposit rate to "somewhere around -0.40% while increase and extension of QE "for as long as necessary" is also on the table which is expected to include regional government bonds.

    JPM: We are forecasting cumulative increase in QE by around EUR300bn and a 10bp cut in deposit rate.

    TDS: We continue to expect the ECB to cut the deposit rate by 20bps (in some form), extend asset purchases by at least 6M to March 2017 likely by removing the time reference altogether, and increase monthly purchases by €10-15bn. Up until recently, the market was only pricing in 10bps worth of deposit rate cuts for December, however it is now pricing in 15bps worth of cuts to the deposit rate in December and a cumulative total of around 22bps of cuts by October 2016.

    Nomura: Expect ECB to increase monthly purchases by EUR10bln while extending its QE to "end June 2017 or beyond", and cut deposit rate further down to -0.30%

    RBC: We are expecting the ECB to extend its QE program by 6-months, in addition to the 20bp deposit rate cut.

    BNPP: We are forecasting ECB to increase its QE by EUR10bln per month while extending it by 12-months to Sep 2017 in addition to the deposit rate cut to -40bps.

    HSBC: The bank is expecting the ECB to drop Sep 2016 timing of QE while a cut of deposit rate by 10bps is also on the cards.

    RBS: We are forecasting ECB to increase the QE by EUR15bln per month and extend it to Mar 2017. Also, expect ECB to cut deposit rate to -0.40%.

    Click here to get more insight of the ECB Meeting Preview with view from our in house Analyst Srimoyee Pandit titled “ECB Meeting: Expected to decide on monetary policy easing. What can the markets expect?
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