ECB on hold at least until June - Rabobank

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Mar 10, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    According to analysts from Rabobank after today’s easing package, the European Central Bank will remain on hold in the coming months.

    Key Quotes:

    “After the extensive easing implemented today, combined with Draghi’s commentary, we now see the ECB on hold in the coming months, and at least until June. The implementation date of the majority of the measures taken today is not until the second half of the year: the first allocation of the second round of TLTROs is not until June, and the purchase of corporate bonds will only start “towards the end of Q2” as well.”

    “This means that until these programmes have fully taken off, the Governing Council can look ahead at the additional easing that will still take effect – thereby taking some pressure off Mr. Draghi to announce any further measures in the short-term.”

    “If the ECB sees the need for further action beyond June, we still see the option of a -10bp cut in the deposit rate. That said, Draghi’s remarks today lead us to believe that the Governing Council may be in the process of mixing up its strategy. This would mean that the GC would prefer to increase its reliance on unconventional measures, should additional stimulus be required in the future.”

    “Although we are positive about the TLTROs, the gainsfrom this programme will be slow. The particular choice of today’s policy measures would seem to indicate that from now onwards, markets may have to adjust to an environment where resistance to further rate cuts is significant.”
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