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ECB to announce a range of policy easing measures – Rabobank

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Mar 7, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    Research Team at Rabobank, suggests that despite the very recent upturn in long-term inflation break-evens, they expect the ECB to announce a range of policy easing measures at their March 10 meeting.

    Key Quotes

    “Our base case is for a 10bp cut in the deposit rate, an extension of the TLTROs (or an equivalent measure) and an expansion of the QE program to the tune of 10-20bn per month. Apart from the possibility of adding more SOE debt to its program, we believe the latter is likely to require a change in the parameters of the PSPP.

    We feel that removing the deposit rate threshold, possibly combined with adding the 1y maturity bucket, stands a chance. Although it exposes the ECB to being accused of monetary financing, we believe there is some wiggling room here. Seen from a portfolio perspective, the ECB could argue that the yield on its total bond portfolio is still (significantly) above the current deposit rate.”
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