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ECB to express a patient view - Danske

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 15, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Córdoba) - According to analysts from Danske Bank, given the market pricing of additional rate cuts, the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on Thursday, could disappoint if Mario Draghi does not point to further rate cuts.

    Key Quotes:

    “Next week is busy in the euro area, especially at the end of the week with the ECB meeting Thursday. We expect the ECB to express a patient view and given the market pricing of additional rate cuts, the meeting could likely be a disappointment if Draghi does not point to further rate cuts. That said, the minutes from the December meeting suggested that the bar for cutting the deposit rate further is not as high as we previously expected.

    “In our view, the ECB is currently split in two camps with the doves arguing for additional easing due to the low oil price and the risk of persistent low inflation, whereas the hawks are likely to focus on the better growth outlook and the declining unemployment rate, which should eventually put upward pressure on wages.”

    We expect Draghi to argue that it is too early to draw any conclusions on the impact on the medium-term outlook for inflation from the oil price decline and also to stay off the trigger as the lower oil price has not resulted in an unwarranted financial tightening through e.g. considerably higher real yields.”
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