Emerging Markets: FX carnage continues - BBH

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 8, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
    Likes Received:
    FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at BBH, suggests that the EM carnage continues as the USD/ZAR made a new all-time high above 16.20 before stabilizing a bit.

    Key Quotes

    “The rand has now completely given up its post-Gordhan relief rally, and is set to continue weakening further. USD/TRY is moving further above 3 and is on track to test its all-time high near 3.0750 from September. USD/RUB is making new cycle highs above 76, and the all-time high near 79 is within sight.

    Emerging Asia has held up relatively well, but many currencies are still trading at multi-year lows against the dollar. These include CNY, SGD, and TWD, but others are expected to join this club soon.

    One major exception here has been the Czech koruna, where EUR/CZK continues to trade firm near the 27 floor against the euro since November. This has necessitated central bank intervention, as the $2.5 bln gain in foreign reserves last month suggests. The $64.8 bln total is the highest on record. Note that a senior official said that the koruna cap exit is becoming more likely in early 2017. Current forward guidance is until “at least” H2 2016, and so this is a bit of a dovish shift.”
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