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EMs: the bottom line, can go further - BBH

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Mar 3, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman explained that similar to what we saw in February, EM is enjoying a nice bounce to start the month.

    Key Quotes:

    "Likewise, firmer oil is one factor, while actual (and potential) monetary stimulus is another. Yet those factors seemed to fade as February progressed. Will we see history repeat itself so soon in March? To us, the Fed tightening story is the wild card. The global liquidity outlook has moved in favor of EM for now, but rising expectations for a Fed rate hike would upset the apple cart.

    Indeed, the Fed outlook is closely tied to the million dollar question: Has EM bottomed? Longer-term, we feel that the commodity situation remains murky as the supply-demand imbalance remains in place in many sectors (oil, copper, iron ore). We have always felt that a halt to the commodity plunge was a necessary but not sufficient condition for overall EM sentiment to improve. Fed tightening will eventually happen, and this should put the broad-based dollar rally back on track. Lastly, the global growth picture does not seem to favor EM just yet.

    Bottom line: this EM rally could run for a while longer, but we still believe that EM turbulence will return later this year. With that in mind, we identify some possible retracement objectives from the EM sell-off that started in December. For those markets that have outperformed and recouped those losses, we will be looking at a broader move that started in October/November. Divergence within EM is likely to continue."
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