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EU Summit: Brexit, Cyprus and the obstacles - BBH

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Mar 16, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    The EU leaders summit on refugees begins tomorrow. and suggested conclusive agreement will likely be elusive.

    Key Quotes:

    "There are three main obstacles.

    First, the effort to reinforce the external borders to allow free internal movement requires Turkey's cooperation, but it won't be represented.

    Second, that is important because Cyprus is demanding more concessions by Turkey.

    Third, others such as Spain, are concerned that the strategy contravenes EU and international law by abridging the right to asylum.

    The way the EU is dealing with the refugee crisis may be giving the EU-skeptics in the UK additional fodder for what seems to be largely an emotional appeal. However, looking deeper into what is happening could be part of the case against Brexit.

    Qualified majority decision-making diminishes the veto power any one country, including the UK, enjoyed.

    Leaving the EU, the UK would be abandoning its remaining veto, which as Cyprus and The Netherlands examples illustrate, may still be important.

    Little Cyprus can single handily block the Germany's Merkel's willingness to make concessions to Turkey to ensure stopping the flood of refugees into Greece.

    Merkel, and apparently much of the EU's leadership are willing to cut a deal.

    That is where Cyprus enters. Previously, Turkey had agreed to recognize the Greek Cypriot government. Because Turkey hasn't, Cyprus has blocked (frozen) negotiations on five "chapters" or areas of EU negotiations. Cypriot President Anastasiades cannot simply fold. He needs to secure concessions from Turkey

    However, Turkey is reluctant to compromise.

    Moreover, the five "chapters" Turkey wanted to proceed on are the same one that Cyprus "frozen".

    Cyprus is playing its small hand well, given its national interests.

    Spain, which is struggling to forge a government from last December's election results, has expressed some concern about the proposed plan to return to Turkey refugees from Greece.

    This seems to be an unusual issue for the caretaker government in Spain to push, but it could reflect a more general push back against Germany.

    In light of the weekend elections in three German states, many may see Merkel as vulnerable.

    However, the electoral results may say more about party politics than Merkel's refugee policies.

    The debate over Greece last summer strained the relationship between Merkel's CDU and the sister party CSU of Bavaria. "
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