EUR/CHF: between the ECB and the SNB – Rabobank

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 27, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Jane Foley, Senior FX Strategist at Rabobank, expects the monetary conditions from both the ECB and the SNB to be the main drivers behind the cross.

    Key Quotes

    “A year has passed since the SNB walked away from its commitment to maintain a EUR/CHF1.20 floor on January 15 2015”.

    “While a broadly stronger USD will be supportive for Swiss exporters, there is risk that the ECB could be successful in engineering a weaker EUR this year”.

    “In order to contain this threat SNB policy remains hugely accommodative with the target for the three month Libor at between -1.25% and -0.25%. The SNB also repeated its warning in December that it will remain active in the FX market”.

    “If the ECB could step up its dovish rhetoric, the likelihood that the SNB will intervene will rise. A more dovish ECB would imply risk of a move to EUR/CHF1.07 in 2016, though we expect that the 1.08 area will remain a pivot for EUR/CHF this year”.
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