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EUR/GBP on a wild ride towards weekly 200 sma

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Mar 21, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    EUR/GBP has been moving lower towards the 0.7800 level through the 50 sma on the 1hr sticks at 0.7808, but has since recovered to current spot at 0.7818 and is consolidating there.

    EUR/GBP has been driven by a recovery in the pound last week, despite Brexit concerns, while the US dollar has been making a come-back in last couple of sessions after last week's huge supply post FOMC surprises from the statement and dovish tone from Yellen.

    The euro, however, might find some continued support where the current account reported a EUR25.4bn surplus for January. While interest rate spreads across the curve have shifted to less USD-bullish, Shaun Osborne Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank warned bulls that yield differentials at the short-end (2Y bond spreads, middle chart) remain wide (-131bps), the more so at the longer end of the curve (10Y spreads at -167bps). "We think the EUR will struggle to rally significantly while rate spreads remain so significant."

    EUR/GBP levels

    EUR/GBP has been a wild ride of late, with volatility picking in the moves to recent lows of 0.7654 and the sharp reverse and rallying all the way up to the February 24th high at 0.7927. A break there looks for the 0.7930 200 week moving average. Karen Jones, chief analyst at Commerzbank explained that if bettered, the 0.8000 region will be back in play. "Immediate upside pressure will be maintained while the four-month support line at 0.7663 underpins."
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