EUR/GBP points to 0.68 in 12-month – Rabobank

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Nov 4, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Edinburgh) - According to Jane Foley, Senior Currency Strategist at Rabobank, the European cross could head towards the 0.68 level in a year’s time.

    Key Quotes

    “EUR/GBP plunged around 2% after ECB President Draghi issued a dovish warning on policy in mid-October”.

    “Although a spate of weak UK manufacturing and export data combined with concerns about the outlook for global growth have pushed back expectations for the first BoE rate hike of the cycle, further easing from the ECB would ensure that the interest rate differential continues to favour the pound”.

    “Currently the money market is not fully priced for the first BoE rate hike of the cycle until early 2017. This is out of kilter with our forecast for a move in August 2016 and contrasts even more so with the consensus of economists’ surveys which favours a rate hike in Q2 2016”.

    “Although there is room for some volatility in EUR/GBP as BoE rate hike speculation is fine-tuned, we maintain our long held forecast that EUR/GBP can trend lower towards the 0.68 level on a 12 month view”.
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