EUR/GBP still bid on Brexit hysteria

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Feb 25, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
    Likes Received:
    EUR/GBP is a bull market, but how long can it be so while the ECB is a dovish play?

    The euro is also a funding currency, yet as risk sentiment returns to markets the euro could be hit hard, and such a scenario tends to play out as investors adjust to the noise surrounding, say a Brexit, or the US heading for a recession and China's doom 'n' gloom, doomsday 2016 media hype.

    Realistically, the public polls and media will make more noise than the "Remain" camp in the build up to the EUR referendum and fx markets will be hooked on that, trading what is seen in the price. However, the bookies have made a 69% probability in favour of the "Remain" to Leave's 31% and usually offer a more realistic probability. Traders are simply going with the volatility within a wide range, so within the noise, there is scope for the losses in the pound to be retraced.

    The recent moves are within the hysteria and due to the noise. There is plenty more of that to come in the lead up to 23 June, which means more downside in sterling unless markets get rational, if they can in these uncertain times?

    EUR/GBP levels

    Technically, EUR/GBP is consolidating with less noise and in a period of reflection. The 50 sma at 0.7894 on the hourly chart supports on dips while below there, the 100 sma at 0.7845 is a deeper support level on the same time frame. 0.8000 is the next target on the upside and is very achievable while the market trades above the key 20 dma at 0.7740 and 0.7720. 0.8046 and Sep 9th 2014 high is a key target that should offer plenty of resistance.
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