EUR: High uncertainty heading into PMI’s data – TDS

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Dec 16, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at TDS, suggests that uncertainty is high heading into flash PMIs.

    Key Quotes

    “The French services PMI is driven in part by sentiment, still gauging post-Paris attacks. We see a slight decline from 51 to 50.8 (as does mkt) but note that a disappointing ECB might weigh on business sentiment.”

    “For German manufacturing PMI, there’s the added weight of complication that the impending longer-than-usual VW shutdowns over the holiday season. Yesterday’s improvement in ZEW makes us confident of an increase to about 53.5, but if sectoral factors weigh heavily, we could end up somewhere closer to consensus for a roughly unchanged reading (52.8).”

    “Final Nov CPI—the flash surprised to the downside, and we had suspected French services CPI to be the culprit on weak travel and tourism prices following the Paris attacks. As this never materialised, there’s a risk of a small upward revision.”
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