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EUR/JPY: testing the upside of consolidative channel

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 18, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
    Likes Received:
    FXStreet (Guatemala) - EUR/JPY is better bid at the start of the week within a sideways channel and is testing the resistance for a pop bank onto the 128 handle.

    The yen has been in vogue so far this year with concerns over the global recovery and in a flight to safety. The euro, however, has also resilient, despite long dollar positions increasing elsewhere across the board bringing in late support for the cross. Meanwhile for the week ahead, the calendar is light for Japan, but brings the first ECB meeting for 2016.

    Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman explained, "After cutting the deposit rate by 10 bp and extending the purchase program by six months a few weeks ago, the ECB cannot reasonably be expected to take fresh action"

    The analysts at BBH added, "Draghi's press conference, as is often the case, will be the more important element. While Draghi is unlikely to express the sense of urgency that he did last October and November, he is unlikely to be satisfied. The Survey of Professional Forecasters may provide an early building block for another policy adjustment in later this year if the sharp decline in oil prices weighs on inflation projections. Draghi may claim another building block for several of the downside risks he had warned of have materialized. While the general market conditions matter, the euro is likely to fall if Draghi follows this tack."

    Valeria Bednarik
    , chief analyst at FXStreet explained the daily chart shows that the price remained far below its moving averages, while the technical indicators have turned lower in oversold territory. "In the 4 hours chart, the price has broken below a short term ascendant trend line, while the technical indicators head south below their mid-lines, and the price stands below its moving averages all of which maintains the risk towards the downside. January 11th low at 12.30 is the immediate support, followed by 126.77, January 7th low. It will take a break below this last to confirm a steeper decline, with 124.40 being the next strong support and a probable target for this week."
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