EUR/NOK seen trading higher, around 9.60 – Danske Bank

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 25, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Senior Analyst at Danske Bank Christin Tuxen expects the cross to edge higher in the short-term.

    Key Quotes

    “In our view the latest move lower in EUR/NOK has been ‘fair’ given the moves in relative rates, the oil price and global risk sentiment on the back of the ECB surprise”.

    “Meanwhile the import-weighted index, ‘I44’, is now close to Norges Bank’s (NB) projection and the currency is consequently no longer an argument for a higher rate path at the next monetary policy meeting in March”.

    “Also economic data releases do not suggest that the business cycle is about to turn and with significantly lower global rates and oil prices (relative to NB’s estimates) the argument for a 25bp rate cut has strengthened since the December meeting”.

    “While markets do price a full rate cut in H1 16 and roughly a 50% probability of another cut in H2 16, the implied probability of less than 50% of a March cut does suggest some upside risk to EUR/NOK for an unchanged oil price in the coming month. We forecast EUR/NOK at 9.60 in both 1M and 3M”.
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