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EUR/SEK seen in a 9.20–9.60 range over six months after Riksbank decision - UBS

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Oct 28, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Córdoba) - Following the Swedish Riksbank decision to extend its government bond purchase program (QE) until end of June 2016 and with the ECB program also on, the UBS analyst team continues to see EUR/SEK in a 9.20–9.60 range over six months.

    Key Quotes

    “As expected, the Swedish Riksbank decided on Wednesday to extend its government bond purchase program (QE) until end of June 2016 to make sure that the nascent upturn in inflation is further supported. The Riksbank is eyeing the Swedish krona closely, and sharpened its language slightly by saying it is "ready to intervene." As long as the European Central Bank's (ECB) QE program continues, currency markets' pressure on the SEK will force the Riksbank to follow along, unless domestic inflation improves strongly enough. Hence, we continue to see EURSEK in a 9.20–9.60 range over six months”.

    “The Riksbank extended QE by SEK 65bn until end of June 2016. This reduces the average monthly amount of purchases slightly from the previous rounds of QE. The bank also postponed its projected first rate hike by six months to 3Q 2017. Despite this further monetary policy easing, the Riksbank once again revised down its growth and inflation forecast for the next two years. In our view, this indicates the risk for further easing to come. The outcome of the Swedish collective wage negotiations in early 2016 will remain important for inflation expectations and thus for the need for further monetary easing”.

    “On a side note, the Riksbank mentioned that it will assess the impact of the European refugee crisis on the Swedish economy. We believe that this potential for cheap labor could put further pressure on the Riksbank's inflation outlook. The bank also heightened pressure on politicians to come up with solutions to the ongoing rise in household debt. We do not think, though, that the Riksbank would use the blunt tool of monetary policy to address this issue. This would not solve the problem of politicians’ inaction and may even risk "pricking the bubble," with all the negative consequences”.
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