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EUR/USD: 1.10 lost and eyes 1hr 100 SMA

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Dec 10, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - EUR/USD is currently consolidating the upside and losing steam on the 1.09 handle as we approach the end of the week, with little in the way to upset the idea of a Fed hike next week.

    That said, there is no certainty around the Fed and if the ECB was anything to go by, a shock to the market would expose the downside in the greenback while bets are already placed on further upside in the euro as Yellen will likely hold off on increasing rates further in the short -term, and even if so, incrementally and shallow hikes have been on the cards.

    A 25bp's hike is expected to kick us off albeit mostly already priced in. However, looking further out, in the US, Padhraic Garvey, analyst at ING suggested to remember that the Fed dots still sit well above the funds strip, "Which leaves plenty of room for the market to revise upward rate hike expectations should US robustness flow well into the business end of 2016."

    Ket Juckes, economist at Socgen explained also that the post-hike dollar correction has started early. " Positioning is being adjusted so that we may not see such a big dollar long by the time the move finally happens (always assuming they do raise rates next week, of course...)."

    EUR/USD levels

    Technically, upward momentum has not been very strong and and the highs on the 1.10 handle were shot-lived. The 200 DMA at 1.1029 caps for now while price stabilizes on the 1.09 handle, eyeing the 100 SMA on the hourly sticks and but now well below the pivot of 1.0980 with a recovery in the RSI (14) on the 4hr to 57 and neutral. "

    Dips lower will find initial support at 1.0717, the 20 day ma ahead of the 1.0523 recent low. Intraday dips should find some support ahead of here circa 1.0796/1.0750, " explained Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank.

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