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EUR/USD: Bearish bias intact with range between 1.0600-1.1050 - MUFG

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Dec 4, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at MUFG, notes that the euro has adjusted sharply higher today following the ECB’s monetary policy meeting reflecting initial investor disappointment that the easing measures announced were not more aggressive.

    Key Quotes

    “The ECB’s easing measures were disappointing as the deposit rate was lowered by only 10 basis points, and the size of monthly QE purchases was maintained at EUR60 billion. The duration of the QE programme was extended broadly in line with expectations to March 2017.”

    “We were also disappointed that the ECB did not provide a stronger signal that the deposit rates cut be lowered even deeper into negative territory if required. The disappointing policy response will raise concerns that the ECB could lose credibility in its fight to lift inflation back to target increasing the likelihood it will have to ease policy further in the future.”

    “Nevertheless the measures will still ease policy significantly as planned asset purchases have increased by at least a third. Momentum and positioning may still favour further upside for EUR/USD in the near-term although we do not believe it is justified by fundamentals and more likely to prove temporary. The US dollar should find support at these more attractive levels heading into the FOMC meeting. It will take a significant negative non-farm payrolls surprise of say less than 100k job gains to materially undermine market expectations for a Fed rate hike this month.”
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