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EUR/USD: bearish on Central Bank divergences - FXStreet

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Dec 16, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet explained that the EUR/USD pair traded quietly for most of this Wednesday, confined to a tight 50 pips range below the 1.0960 level ahead of the US Central Bank decision.

    Key Quotes:

    "The calendar was pretty busy ever since the day started, as earlier today, the Markit flash estimates for the PMIs for December in the EU, showed that the region continued growing at a solid pace. In Germany, the manufacturing PMI rose to 53 as expected, whilst the service sector printed 55.4, slightly below the previous 55.6, but still strong. The EU figures were quite similar, with manufacturing outpacing services' growth.

    In the US, a positive surprise came from the housing sector, as new home starts climbed by 10.5% in November, to a 1.17 million annualized rate. The Markit flash US manufacturing PMI for December, however, fell from a 54 previous to 51.3, while Industrial Production for November also missed expectations, indicating the US economy has grew at a slower pace. Dollar initially gained following the FED's announcement by 25bp by an unanimous decision, while authorities warned that current conditions warrant only gradual rate increases in the future. The economic forecasts for the upcoming years were less than upbeat, with the outlook for 2016 remaining relatively unchanged.

    The EUR/USD pair fell down to 1.0887, but dollar's momentum was reversed with Yellen comments and press conference, as the head of the FED said "we’re hiking now to avoid more hikes later." The extremely dovish comment sent the EUR/USD up to a daily high of 1.1010 and leaves the greenback down across the board.

    From a technical point of view, the pair has remained contained within Fibonacci levels, and in the 4 hours chart, the pair seems far from picking up momentum, giving that the price is unable to extend beyond a flat 20 SMA while the technical indicators turned lower after failing to overcome their mid-lines. The long term picture is dollar bullish, as the FED's decision has just widened the Central Bank's imbalance, although with the winter holidays around the corner, choppy trading will be the name of the game during the upcoming weeks."
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