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EUR/USD: consolidating on 2000 - 2015 support line

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Nov 30, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - EUR/USD is consolidating the downside on a key week. The morning in Europe was trickle of offers in a greenback dominated environment, plus worse than expected German retails and in line CPI, albeit higher Y/Y and m/m than prior by 0.1%.

    The US session let out some disappointments in data for the US economy, but markets are looking ahead to the Nonfarm Payrolls and the overall picture remains with the anticipation of a Fed hike against a backdrop of a leading economy and subsequent divergence between the Fed and ECB.

    The ECB is a key focus this week. They have over easing 20 options available at their disposal, of which analysts at TD Securities still feel that they could surprise the market, outside of the general consensus of further easing of EUR30bn and a rate cut in the deposit rates of circa 15bps. As far as Nonfarm Payrolls, markets are not expecting the same kind of performance in the jobs sector as displayed in the last release, but nonetheless expect a decent enough headline figure and stability on wage growth to permit the FOMC to conclude that indeed Dec is an appropriate time for lift-off.

    EUR/USD levels

    Technically, we are testing the strength and bull's commitments at the 1.0560/20 level and this is critical being the 2000-15 support line. This guards 1.0457 and March low that could be equally a strong level of support as last defence for the seven year support line at 1.0254.

    As we approach parity, markets may wish to test such a barrier. On the other hand, a break up and of the 20 DMA at 1.0712 and July daily lows at 1.0808 could stave of the immediate downside pressures but would run into strong resistance at the Fibo at 1.0830/36 level.
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