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EUR/USD & ECB: will we see the euro smashed into touch?

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Dec 3, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - EUR/USD is going to be a big play with the ECB coming up, while some analysts are seeing no-brainer actions from Draghi, others are more skeptical and feel that Draghi will come out and shock that market, potentially knocking the euro for six.

    So, the general consensus is that the deposit rate will be cut and Westpac looks for the deposit rate to be lowered from -0.2% to -0.3%, with risks of a deeper cut. "Reuters surveys of economists found most expecting an increase in the EUR60bn monthly asset purchases as well, with a median forecast of EUR75bn, while a deposit rate cut was widely expected," as noted by Westpac in today's key events ahead.

    However, some analysts are looking for Draghi to really surprise the market and see the euro as low as 300 pips on the offer as a knee jerk reaction and for EUR/USD to stay low on the way to parity. This is a big call, but that's what makes a market, right, albeit perhaps a little extreme? However, in the face of the divergence between the Fed and ECB over the coming six months, there is plenty of room for volatility and or strong directional strength to the downside.

    EUR/USD levels

    Technically, Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet, explained that the pair has been trading in quite a limited range ever since the week started, ahead of the upcoming major events, and the technical picture is neutral-to-bearish, as the 4 hours chart shows that the price is struggling around a horizontal 20 SMA, while the technical indicators are seeking for direction around their mid-lines. "A break below 1.0550, with additional easing coming from the ECB, can open doors for a retest of the year low at 1.0460 this Thursday, with chances of fresh lows afterwards, should US employment data beat expectations."

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