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EUR/USD forecast: eyes on Payrolls – Commerzbank and Danske Bank

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Dec 4, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Edinburgh) - After yesterday’s massive advance to the boundaries of the critical barrier at 1.1000, the pair is now hovering over 1.09 ahead of US NFP due later (200K exp.).

    “EUR/USD jumped on the ECB disappointment yesterday but our short-term financial model suggests that we are seeing an overshooting in the cross at present putting EUR/USD ‘fair’ at 1.07. Notably, as a good deal of short EUR bets should have been covered in yesterday's rally, risks should be on the downside short term”, suggested Kristoffer Lomholt, Analyst at Danske Bank.

    Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, added “well we have been saying it for at least a week that we thought we would see a corrective rebound, but even we did not think we would see such a monster rally in one day. Having taken out the 1.0830/36 key near term resistance, there is scope for a further advance to the 1.1036 200 day ma and even the 1.1087/97 September low and 28th October high. Key resistance remains the 1.1261/40 2014-2015 downtrend and 55 week ma and while capped here the market will remain in a longer term down move”.
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