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EUR/USD forecast: eyes on US GDP – Commerzbank and Danske Bank

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Feb 26, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    EUR/USD is confirming its recent upbeat momentum, although the upside run out of legs around 1.1070 ahead of the US GDP figures due later.

    Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, suggested “no change, the market is approaching the base of the channel currently circa 1.0950, we note the TD perfected set up on the daily and have partially exited our short positions, as we suspect that this will hold the initial test. Longer term we would treat a close below here as the trigger for the resumption of the bear trend and target a move to 1.0560/1.0457”.

    In addition, Senior Analyst at Danske Bank ChristinTuxen noted “ While the very light pricing of the Fed leaves room for a near-term re-pricing of the US money market curve and some USD strength from this channel, we believe that the clearing skies for the euro zone both cyclically and deflation-wise will allow EUR/USD to drift higher as warranted by fundamentals even if the ECB stays in easing mode for a while still. We have kept our 6-12M forecast profile unchanged and thus continue to see EUR/USD headed towards 1.16 in 12M, but upped our 1-3M forecasts slightly, seeing a dip towards 1.08 (prev. 1.06) in 3M”.
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