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EUR/USD holds above 1.1000, still capped by the 20-DMA

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Mar 9, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    The euro jumped against the US dollar during the American session and in a few minutes erased daily losses. EUR/USD bottomed at 1.0944, slightly above Monday’s lows and then bounced to the upside, rising almost a hundred pips from the lows.

    The pair peaked at 1.1034, below yesterday’s highs located at 1.1058 and also under the 20-day simple moving average that stands around 1.1050. Currently, it trades at 1.1010, after moving modestly off session highs, headed toward the fourth daily close in a row near 1.1000.

    ECB on the radar

    Tomorrow volatility in the EUR/USD is expected to rise considering that the European Central Bank will held its meeting. A change in the deposit rate is expected and also in the purchase program. The decision and Draghi’s words are likely to impact on the euro.

    “Against the backdrop of a very uncertain outcome at this week’s ECB meeting, we do not think pre-positioning in EURUSD ahead of the event offers an attractive risk/ reward trade-off. Many of the decision points will result in binary outcomes that could produce large price gaps with little opportunity for entry or exit in between”, noted analyst from TD Securities.

    According to them, the influence of the ECB has over FX markets may have diminished somewhat. “The ECB has had some success in capping EUR strength but its ability to engineer currency weakness has underwhelmed. This leaves us less confident that a major dose of monetary stimulus this week will result in a sustained EUR decline, particularly against the USD.”
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