EUR/USD: In ranges before rising toward 1.20 (fair value) - Lloyds Bank

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Apr 11, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    Analysts from Lloyds Bank, expect EUR/USD to move to the downside, back to 1.10 and to hold in the medium term in the 1.05 - 1.10 range.

    Key Quotes:

    “Having tested range lows at 1.08 after the ECB announced further policy easing in March, EUR surged following President Draghi’s suggestion, in the subsequent press conference, that interest rates were unlikely to be cut further. His comments stunned the market, and overshadowed what was otherwise a substantive set of measures. Despite over-delivering - increasing QE by €20bn/month, extending purchases to investment grade non-bank corporate bonds, cutting the deposit and refinance rates and initiating a new four-year TLTRO program – EUR/USD experienced its third largest intra-day rally since 2009.”

    “That upward momentum was maintained after the Fed adopted a more dovish stance, with the currency pair testing medium-term range highs above 1.14.”

    “Despite recent rhetoric, we believe the US Fed is still likely to raise interest rates in June. That, coupled with the risk of additional ECB stimulus, is expected to push EUR/USD back to 1.10. Beyond that, the currency pair is likely to continue to trade within its medium-term 1.05 – 1.15 range, before trending towards fair value, estimated to be around 1.20.”
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