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EUR/USD: Jump to 1.09 seems “fair” - Danske Bank

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Dec 3, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Córdoba) - According to analysts from Danske Bank, today’s decision at the ECB were EUR supportive but moves could show an overshooting in EUR/USD.

    Key Quotes:

    “In light of the high expectations and heavy short EUR positioning going into the ECB meeting, the initial jump in EUR/USD towards the 1.09 mark seems ‘fair’. The small rate cut, the lack of any forward guidance, and the fact that no two-tiered deposit rate system was introduced (this could have opened up the probability space for rates on the downside) should be supportive of EUR crosses near term.”

    “That said, our short-term financial model suggests that we are seeing an overshooting in the cross at present putting EUR/USD ‘fair’ at 1.07. Notably, as a good deal of short EUR bets should have been covered in today’s rally, risks should be on the downside short term.”

    “Indeed, a key driver of downside in the cross near term remains the Fed: a first hike now seems more or less a done deal provided payrolls do not plunge tomorrow. While the FOMC ‘dots’ may be revised in a more dovish direction in December, we still project a more aggressive Fed in 2016 than what is currently priced in, and thus see EUR/USD under pressure from this side in 1-3M. A rebound in EUR/USD in 6-12M is still on our agenda though.
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